The Economy And Stock Market What To Expect

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You will hear news about the trade war as well as new and improved ways  prevent  the economy from going into a depression. There will be news reports connecting an economic downturn to something that is happening the very day economic troubles become acknowledged. It will be blamed on some development in the trade war or some change in a Federal Reserve policy. It will be blamed on something the president said or did on a given day. It may even be blamed on immigration policy.  It will be blamed on something in the news for sure. Pay these things no mind.

Central economic planning is the cause of economic headwinds. Efforts to eliminate the business cycle may have been successful according to raw government statistics. Eliminating the business cycle and doing away with small recessions guarantees an eventual life changing depression. Why? Recessions are signals to producers that they have produced too much of  one thing and need to re-figure out what consumers are likely to to be more interested in buying.

This is never mentioned but at the bottom of the depression in the 1930s, prosperity in the United States was higher than any level of prosperity ever achieved in a command economy. For example, the old Soviet Union was completely successful in eliminating its business cycle. In being successful in doing that prosperity of any kind disappeared. Central economic planning in the United States will destroy life in the United States just as it did in the old Soviet Union. Ronald Reagan did not destroy the old Soviet Union. The old Soviet Union destroyed itself.

Central economic planning has always handicapped the U. S. economy. After passage of the Full Employment Act of 1978 Central Economic Planning was mandated and is now the law of the land.  Who gets what in the economy is now determined by who has political power and not by who has money to spend. With the acceleration of central economic planning, lobbying efforts have increased manifold. With central economic planning as the law of the land, government is now the go to place for strong financial interests to take advantage of the rest of societies members who have little political power.

The coming depression is a given. Count on it. It is going to happen. The economy is already rotting from the bottom up. The growing number of homeless is a clear sign.  Those with the least political power are the first to suffer. Whatever your level of prosperity, the misery is chasing you up the food chain ladder and you won’t be able to escape. When the economic rot at the bottom is pervasive enough, the top of the economy will collapse and there will me misery abound. The possible outcomes of chaos are not predictable. When the calamity hits, the public is highly likely to opt for more central planning. Intellectuals will seize the opportunity to profit from the pretense of knowledge and accommodate all who still have confidence in government economic solutions. Basically more of what has caused the difficulties will likely be used to try and remedy the problems. Just be ready because things are going to get very very bad.

The stock market is no longer a leading indicator. Stock prices are managed with organized support. The stock market now serves more like a judas goat.   Specially trained goats have been used as a means of gently enticing sheep to peacefully follow such goats to be slaughtered.  That is the function of the stock market today. 

Right now the U.S. stock market market is at a critical juncture as are foreign stock Markets. All major indexes around the world are in in long term consolidation patterns. Any stock market that looks like it will break down below its consolidation pattern is going to get as much organized support as can be mustered up. The question we all must ask is, what are the limits of resources that can be used to elevate the stock market? That is why I am in cash as an alternative to shorting the market.









Some may remember my forecast from December of 2018.  Don’t Dismiss This Rally This was at a time when most others were convinced that a bear market had started and it had a long way to go. I knew right away that organized support had come in and would push the market higher than anyone was expecting. I am honestly not that good of a stock market analyst. I may be above average but I am not psychic for sure. What I am good at is discovering that non organic forces are distorting a market. That doesn’t happen that often but it is happening and has been the driving force behind high stock prices. My work is based on natural law and natural law never fails, at least it hasn’t failed yet.

For more insight as to how the stock market is being used, this is an earlier article clarifying that. The Horse The Economy Rides, The Stock Market

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.



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Dont Dismiss This Rally


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About Fantasy Free Economics

James Quillian independent scholar,free market economist,and teacher of natural law. Who is James Quillian? Certainly I am nobody special, Just a tireless academic and deep thinker. Besides that, I have broken the code with respect to economics and political science. Credentials? Nothing you would be impressed with. I am not a household name. It is hard to become famous writing that virtually no one in the country is genuinely not in touch with reality. But, if I did not do that, there would be no point in my broking the broken the code. If you read the blog, it is easy to see that there are just a few charts, no math and no quantitative analysis. That is not by accident. Given what I know, those items are completely useless. I do turn out to be highly adept at applying natural law. Natural law has predominance over any principles the social science comes up. By virtue of understanding natural law, I can debunk, in just a few sentences , any theory that calls for intervention by a government. My taking the time to understand the ins and outs of Keynes General Theory is about like expecting a chemistry student to completely grasp all that the alchemists of the middle ages thought they understood in efforts to turn base metals into goal. Keynesian theory clearly calls for complete objectivity. Government can only make political decisions. Keynesian techniques call for economic decisions. So, why go any further with that? Fantasy Free Economics is in a sense a lot like technical analysis. Technical analysis began with the premise that it was impossible to gain enough information studying fundamentals to gain a trading advantage. Study the behavior of investors instead. Unlike technical analysis, I don't use technical charts. What I understand are the incentives of different people and entities active in the economics arena. For example, there is no such thing as an incentive to serve with life in the aggregate. In the aggregate, only self interest applies. It is routinely assumed otherwise. That is highly unappealing. But, I am sorry. That is the way it is. I can accept that because I am genuinely in touch with reality. Step one in using Fantasy Free Economics is for me to understand just how little I really know. A highly credentialed economist may know 100 times what I do based on the standard dogma. Compare the knowledge each of us has compared to all there is to know and we both look like we know nothing at all. There is always more than we don't know than what we do know. I am humble enough to present myself on that basis. Why? That is the way it is. I am not bad at math. I have taught math. What I understand is when to use it and when to rely on something else. Math is useless in natural law so I don't use it. While others look at numbers, I am busy understanding the forces in nature that makes their numbers what they are. That gives me a clear advantage.
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