Stock Market’s First Day 2017

My best estimate is that January 3 will begin with a sell off. Reasoning will be that our economic situation is so dire that higher prices are not possible. Don’t forget that any money you have available to lose, you had to earn. The Federal Reserve and its friends have any amount they can imagine. They also know that if they lose, they will almost certainly be bailed out by the government. Their gamble is heads we win tails you lose.

With all of the money the mind can imagine, none of which they have had to earn, it is easy to decide what happens to your money. Stealing it from you is not a difficult task.

Chances are extreme weakness will stabilize if not before the end of the trading day within a few trading days.  By then bears will have be loaded up on short positions and be ready to be squeezed. Those with profits will cover while they can and the averages will rocket to new highs.

The other possibility is that traders may have smartened up enough enough not to participate this time.  After all, the economy has been destroyed. The mob will cut and run. The Fed will be on its own and the market will crash like nothing you can imagine.

This is not a real market. I don’t trade in fake markets. Many opportunities will emerge after the crash. Again, I can’t time the crash well enough to justify trying. Buying opportunities after the crash are a certainty.

There are circumstances where I will go on the short side and I will keep you posted on that.

Lastly, assuming the mob maintains control of the market, look for AMZN, FB, APPL,  NFLX and other fantasy based stocks to be weak this year. Most goosing will be in the blue chips.  Be warned, the mob is not as strong as it was this time last year and any number of stunts will be tried.

 

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About Fantasy Free Economics

James Quillian independent scholar,free market economist,and teacher of natural law. Who is James Quillian? Certainly I am nobody special, Just a tireless academic and deep thinker. Besides that, I have broken the code with respect to economics and political science. Credentials? Nothing you would be impressed with. I am not a household name. It is hard to become famous writing that virtually no one in the country is genuinely not in touch with reality. But, if I did not do that, there would be no point in my broking the broken the code. If you read the blog, it is easy to see that there are just a few charts, no math and no quantitative analysis. That is not by accident. Given what I know, those items are completely useless. I do turn out to be highly adept at applying natural law. Natural law has predominance over any principles the social science comes up. By virtue of understanding natural law, I can debunk, in just a few sentences , any theory that calls for intervention by a government. My taking the time to understand the ins and outs of Keynes General Theory is about like expecting a chemistry student to completely grasp all that the alchemists of the middle ages thought they understood in efforts to turn base metals into goal. Keynesian theory clearly calls for complete objectivity. Government can only make political decisions. Keynesian techniques call for economic decisions. So, why go any further with that? Fantasy Free Economics is in a sense a lot like technical analysis. Technical analysis began with the premise that it was impossible to gain enough information studying fundamentals to gain a trading advantage. Study the behavior of investors instead. Unlike technical analysis, I don't use technical charts. What I understand are the incentives of different people and entities active in the economics arena. For example, there is no such thing as an incentive to serve with life in the aggregate. In the aggregate, only self interest applies. It is routinely assumed otherwise. That is highly unappealing. But, I am sorry. That is the way it is. I can accept that because I am genuinely in touch with reality. Step one in using Fantasy Free Economics is for me to understand just how little I really know. A highly credentialed economist may know 100 times what I do based on the standard dogma. Compare the knowledge each of us has compared to all there is to know and we both look like we know nothing at all. There is always more than we don't know than what we do know. I am humble enough to present myself on that basis. Why? That is the way it is. I am not bad at math. I have taught math. What I understand is when to use it and when to rely on something else. Math is useless in natural law so I don't use it. While others look at numbers, I am busy understanding the forces in nature that makes their numbers what they are. That gives me a clear advantage.
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