The pattern of fall weakness is the most reliable of all seasonal patterns with respect to the stock market. A disproportional number of crashes occur during this time frame.
There is a twist to this. There actually is a consortium which causes stock prices to increase. The market is manicured and supported second by second. You can no longer automatically use this pattern with any degree of reliability. I have never seen so many previously bearish indicators . Under other circumstances, I would expect a bear market to begin like right now.
The problem with that is, there is no way to know what heroic measures will be taken in order to leapfrog the market over this naturally weak period. We know that something will be tried. Then there is the factor that they are destroying the overall economy while enriching themselves. Reality will impose itself on the elite at some point,
Will the market crash? It will if no effort to save the market is effective. All efforts fail, yes the market will crash. If this happens, expect volume to run at perhaps three times its normal 200 day moving average. Right now volume is kept low purposefully. Most volume consists of split second trading. To take it down, longer term holdings must hit the market.
The other scenario is that for the first time in history windfall profits will fall into the hands of retail customers who have jumped into the market just reciently.
Of these two possibilities, which seems most likely to you?