Stock Market September Thru October Fall Seasonal Pattern

The pattern of fall weakness is the most reliable of all seasonal patterns with respect to the stock market. A disproportional number of crashes occur during this time frame.

There is a twist to this. There actually is a consortium which causes stock prices to increase. The market is manicured and supported second by second. You can no longer automatically use  this pattern with any degree of reliability.  I have never seen so many previously bearish indicators . Under other circumstances, I would expect a bear market to begin like right now.

The problem with that is, there is no way to know what heroic measures will be taken in order to leapfrog the market over this naturally weak period. We know that something will be tried. Then there is the factor that they are destroying the overall economy while enriching themselves.  Reality will impose itself on the elite at some point,

Will the market crash? It will if no effort to save the market is effective. All efforts fail, yes the market will crash. If this happens, expect volume to run at perhaps three times its normal 200 day moving average. Right now volume is kept low purposefully. Most volume consists of split second trading. To take it down, longer term holdings must hit the market.

The other scenario is that for the first time in history windfall profits will fall into the hands of retail customers who have jumped into the market just reciently.

Of these two possibilities, which seems most likely to you?

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About Fantasy Free Economics

James Quillian independent scholar,free market economist,and teacher of natural law. Who is James Quillian? Certainly I am nobody special, Just a tireless academic and deep thinker. Besides that, I have broken the code with respect to economics and political science. Credentials? Nothing you would be impressed with. I am not a household name. It is hard to become famous writing that virtually no one in the country is genuinely not in touch with reality. But, if I did not do that, there would be no point in my broking the broken the code. If you read the blog, it is easy to see that there are just a few charts, no math and no quantitative analysis. That is not by accident. Given what I know, those items are completely useless. I do turn out to be highly adept at applying natural law. Natural law has predominance over any principles the social science comes up. By virtue of understanding natural law, I can debunk, in just a few sentences , any theory that calls for intervention by a government. My taking the time to understand the ins and outs of Keynes General Theory is about like expecting a chemistry student to completely grasp all that the alchemists of the middle ages thought they understood in efforts to turn base metals into goal. Keynesian theory clearly calls for complete objectivity. Government can only make political decisions. Keynesian techniques call for economic decisions. So, why go any further with that? Fantasy Free Economics is in a sense a lot like technical analysis. Technical analysis began with the premise that it was impossible to gain enough information studying fundamentals to gain a trading advantage. Study the behavior of investors instead. Unlike technical analysis, I don't use technical charts. What I understand are the incentives of different people and entities active in the economics arena. For example, there is no such thing as an incentive to serve with life in the aggregate. In the aggregate, only self interest applies. It is routinely assumed otherwise. That is highly unappealing. But, I am sorry. That is the way it is. I can accept that because I am genuinely in touch with reality. Step one in using Fantasy Free Economics is for me to understand just how little I really know. A highly credentialed economist may know 100 times what I do based on the standard dogma. Compare the knowledge each of us has compared to all there is to know and we both look like we know nothing at all. There is always more than we don't know than what we do know. I am humble enough to present myself on that basis. Why? That is the way it is. I am not bad at math. I have taught math. What I understand is when to use it and when to rely on something else. Math is useless in natural law so I don't use it. While others look at numbers, I am busy understanding the forces in nature that makes their numbers what they are. That gives me a clear advantage.
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