First, a crash is not a guarantee. The market will suffer a catastrophic loss regardless. The question is, how long will it take to get to the bottom?
As long as the political structure stays in place, a crash will not occur. Remember, this particular market is driven by a political agenda. What good is political power? Political power is the world’s best way to enrich oneself. As long as the political power structure says intact central banks are obligated to support stock prices. Buying enough stock to keep the market from crashing is an easy task. Central banks will not stop supporting asset prices on their own.
As I am writing this, the political structure of the world is unraveling. So, the chances of an actual crash are increasing.
Odds are it will be telegraphed before the U.S. open. If you are a retail customer, the trading platform you are using will not be available for at least most of the day. This won’t be because of too much online traffic. It will be by design to keep retail stock holdings from having a chance to hit the market. Financial sites will operate inefficiently or not at all so as to slow down the flow of information. The averages will be reported just like they are on any other day.
There are a few folks who hold bearish positions that will be profitable during a decline. Profits will accumulate rapidly. Chances are that the rules will change. Profitable bear ETF trades will probably be undone. Windfall profits on downside trades will be disallowed. Banks will fail. Brokerage firms will fail also. It will be difficult for traders to get their hands on money that is rightfully theirs. I have said that stimulus is theft many times. It stands to reason that a 40+ year old theft initiative will be polished off with one last astronomical theft.
Will anyone go to jail? Certainly somebody will but rounding up all of the stimulus thieves will be harder to do than it was to round up all of the guilty NAZIs after WWII. It is not hard to notice that laws are now enforced according to political criteria and do not automatically apply to everyone. Crime and government have completely merged. There really is no one in Washington who has an incentive to enforce laws. The public knows all of this but doesn’t care. All of the ingredients needed to cause a complete breakdown in the country are in place and ready to fall.