Permanent Depression

Permanent Depression PDF Version
I want to make sure I am on record in forecasting a permanent depression. This is while others are calling for a recession or a simple depression.  Few have not heard the news that we have had two quarters of negative GDP growth. That by most is deemed to be a recession. Government statistics are always as positive as they possibly can be. Surely the real situation is much worse. Now, some are challenging this time -honored definition of what constitutes a recession. Why call it a recession if we don’t have to? Certainly we shouldn’t want Americans to be discouraged.

I don’t follow government statistics. Economic downturns have much to do with the mindset of the population and nothing to do with government policy itself, in the present moment. I think… instead. Thinking is not allowed in economics. I break that rule – and that is why I don’t have a job.

I have written many times that any economic recovery requires free market influences be intact. The more which are intact, the greater the recovery is. The United States economy does not have enough free market attributes to right itself. Central economic planning cannot right anything. It never has and it never will….as it (what the government does) controls the essence of the vast majority of Americans.  A right wing Republican likely lives in a home that is financed with a subsidized interest rate. A left wing democrat gets the same benefit. Both may have subsidized or free solar panels on their roofs. There are many stealth subsidies that few are willing to do without.

What is it in a person’s life that that is not controlled by a central authority? It is hard to think of much. Every time a decision is made to opt for government control in one’s life, an equal amount of freedom must be be surrendered in order to make it possible. As Americans have continued to opt for collective solutions, loss of freedom…. voluntary as it might be, is lost. Folks are left with only the freedoms they deem meaningful to them. All can still move about freely and do things like walk down any street and seek out entertainment. Healthcare is managed. Government decides what folks can and cannot buy.  Who personally decided that their gas needs ethanol in it? Who decides to buy wind generated energy instead of fossil fuels? Major spending decisions are made by government.

First Amendment rights are certainly under assault.  To most this doesn’t matter. Only those effected are concerned. There is a collectivist dark cloud of mentality that purveys society today. Given this, along with the disappearance of free market attributes, really does mean there will be no recovery.

No, the ingredients needed to launch an economic recovery are gone. The collectivist policies Americans opt for are present and growing. There is no movement to move back the free market approach.

You cannot go swimming when there is no water in the pool. You can’t have prosperity in a country which has dismantled its free market system.

 

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About Fantasy Free Economics

James Quillian independent scholar,free market economist,and teacher of natural law. Who is James Quillian? Certainly I am nobody special, Just a tireless academic and deep thinker. Besides that, I have broken the code with respect to economics and political science. Credentials? Nothing you would be impressed with. I am not a household name. It is hard to become famous writing that virtually no one in the country is genuinely not in touch with reality. But, if I did not do that, there would be no point in my broking the broken the code. If you read the blog, it is easy to see that there are just a few charts, no math and no quantitative analysis. That is not by accident. Given what I know, those items are completely useless. I do turn out to be highly adept at applying natural law. Natural law has predominance over any principles the social science comes up. By virtue of understanding natural law, I can debunk, in just a few sentences , any theory that calls for intervention by a government. My taking the time to understand the ins and outs of Keynes General Theory is about like expecting a chemistry student to completely grasp all that the alchemists of the middle ages thought they understood in efforts to turn base metals into goal. Keynesian theory clearly calls for complete objectivity. Government can only make political decisions. Keynesian techniques call for economic decisions. So, why go any further with that? Fantasy Free Economics is in a sense a lot like technical analysis. Technical analysis began with the premise that it was impossible to gain enough information studying fundamentals to gain a trading advantage. Study the behavior of investors instead. Unlike technical analysis, I don't use technical charts. What I understand are the incentives of different people and entities active in the economics arena. For example, there is no such thing as an incentive to serve with life in the aggregate. In the aggregate, only self interest applies. It is routinely assumed otherwise. That is highly unappealing. But, I am sorry. That is the way it is. I can accept that because I am genuinely in touch with reality. Step one in using Fantasy Free Economics is for me to understand just how little I really know. A highly credentialed economist may know 100 times what I do based on the standard dogma. Compare the knowledge each of us has compared to all there is to know and we both look like we know nothing at all. There is always more than we don't know than what we do know. I am humble enough to present myself on that basis. Why? That is the way it is. I am not bad at math. I have taught math. What I understand is when to use it and when to rely on something else. Math is useless in natural law so I don't use it. While others look at numbers, I am busy understanding the forces in nature that makes their numbers what they are. That gives me a clear advantage.
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