In Search of Constants

Although there are claims to the contrary, there are no independent variables in economics. Typically, an economic model will assume one variable will change and other incentives will be undisturbed.  In the real world, when one variable changes, all other variables change also. For example the Federal Reserve will increase the money supply and assume that human behavior will remain unchanged in every capacity except the one they are trying to influence.  That of course is a gross error. When the Federal Reserve makes a change, the smart people of the world monitor, adjust and find ways to game the fed’s decision.

With Fantasy Free Economics, there are behaviors that can be counted on although these things are not numbers. Natural law will always trump economic dogma. For example, if an economic initiative begins with an immoral action, the costs will outweigh the benefits regardless of the initial logic of the activity. It will take time for the costs to accumulate and benefits can be pointed out initially. In the end the initiative will not work out for the best.

Clearly there is one factor that is somewhat stable, but again it cannot be reduced to a number. That is the stupidity of the general population with respect to political and economic issues.  Even this is not consistent and even a little variation can change the direction of the country. As long as people are comfortable, they will not entertain individual thoughts. Thinking is work and work is avoided. As soon as a little suffering begins, thinking  emerges as means to escape discomfort and misery. The few people who entertain unique thoughts will be rapidly copied.

As long as Americans are comfortable and not in any personal discomfort, they will believe anything they are told.  Change this and levels skepticism start to rise. Currently, words of the media and the old dialog are increasingly falling on deaf ears. Citizens are not believing things automatically. Clearly, there is a new awareness that despite all of the wonderful economic news that is being reported, the average person is falling behind and not able to make personal progress. The degree of suffering is actually increasing. As suffering continues to increase, there will be more interest in making changes in government. The changes asked for may not be of any value however because the new found thinking will be done by a population that is basically ignorant. But, watch for changes.

 

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About Fantasy Free Economics

James Quillian independent scholar,free market economist,and teacher of natural law. Who is James Quillian? Certainly I am nobody special, Just a tireless academic and deep thinker. Besides that, I have broken the code with respect to economics and political science. Credentials? Nothing you would be impressed with. I am not a household name. It is hard to become famous writing that virtually no one in the country is genuinely not in touch with reality. But, if I did not do that, there would be no point in my broking the broken the code. If you read the blog, it is easy to see that there are just a few charts, no math and no quantitative analysis. That is not by accident. Given what I know, those items are completely useless. I do turn out to be highly adept at applying natural law. Natural law has predominance over any principles the social science comes up. By virtue of understanding natural law, I can debunk, in just a few sentences , any theory that calls for intervention by a government. My taking the time to understand the ins and outs of Keynes General Theory is about like expecting a chemistry student to completely grasp all that the alchemists of the middle ages thought they understood in efforts to turn base metals into goal. Keynesian theory clearly calls for complete objectivity. Government can only make political decisions. Keynesian techniques call for economic decisions. So, why go any further with that? Fantasy Free Economics is in a sense a lot like technical analysis. Technical analysis began with the premise that it was impossible to gain enough information studying fundamentals to gain a trading advantage. Study the behavior of investors instead. Unlike technical analysis, I don't use technical charts. What I understand are the incentives of different people and entities active in the economics arena. For example, there is no such thing as an incentive to serve with life in the aggregate. In the aggregate, only self interest applies. It is routinely assumed otherwise. That is highly unappealing. But, I am sorry. That is the way it is. I can accept that because I am genuinely in touch with reality. Step one in using Fantasy Free Economics is for me to understand just how little I really know. A highly credentialed economist may know 100 times what I do based on the standard dogma. Compare the knowledge each of us has compared to all there is to know and we both look like we know nothing at all. There is always more than we don't know than what we do know. I am humble enough to present myself on that basis. Why? That is the way it is. I am not bad at math. I have taught math. What I understand is when to use it and when to rely on something else. Math is useless in natural law so I don't use it. While others look at numbers, I am busy understanding the forces in nature that makes their numbers what they are. That gives me a clear advantage.
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