Just last week, I added some to my blanket positions in Bear ETFs, mainly TZA. I also own TECS, FAZ, SD and BIS.
None of these are large positions. Altogether I am in negative numbers. I would rather not be, but given my system of trading, that is unavoidable sometimes.
I am not short a single share yet, but I will be. Today’s traders are accustomed to bear markets that snap back like a jack knife. That is not going to happen this time. I am looking at a decline that lasts no less than two years.
So, I am not in a great hurry to load up on shorts. The ALGOs control the direction of the market, but only to the upside. The ideal time to short is when the ALGOs are no longer relevant. When long term holdings start hitting the market, they will be helpless with respect to their trend guiding efforts.
My goal as a trader is to get in and stay in whether long or short for the duration of a move. I would be short up to my neck right now, if the market was not so adeptly rigged up to this point. Further, I don’t know what heroic steps the government will take on behalf of our betters, in terms of a wealth saving programs. I think we can count on some collective efforts to save those who count.
I never use stops. With the ALGOs in charge, a stop is as much as a guaranteed loss. Without the ALGOs, I don’t need stops anyway.
The ideal short for me is a stock that will eventually fall off the board and land in the corporate grave yard. After a bear market is over, many stocks will be destroyed. My hope is to never have to cover.
So, what I am looking for are stocks that are not going to survive. I don’t have a list yet. I am at best an average stock picker. If anyone has idea with respect to good short sale candidates, I am listening.
My first criteria in this effort is a company’s utility to society. As corny as this may sound, stocks with no utility to society are the ones that end up on the pink sheets sooner or later. Big tech, Big Pharma, Big Insurance and others currently have a negative utility over all. In other words they only take and never give. By give, I don’t mean by means of charity. I mean, those which in one way or another enhance lives over all. The industries, just mentioned have enormous political power. That power is diminishing rapidly. A better bet is to find the smaller players in these industries and short those.
I don’t have the time to research all of the opportunities. No no one else does either. That is why I am suggesting collaboration.
None of this is advice. It is just what I am personally doing. If I ever give you advice, don’t take it. I can be right ten times in a row, and then give advice. it almost always backfires.
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Short Squeeze Or Dead Cat Bounce
This is an organized effort to restart and maintain the bull market. If the ALGOS can make a snake, they have substantial control over the market. So, they do in fact still have plenty of control over the market. ‘
To accomplish this task, a low volume atmosphere must be maintained. Long term holdings must be kept off the market. How are long term holdings kept off the market. All it would take is phone calls explaining to potential sellers that prices are going up. The word is, you will get a better price. We will see to it that you do.
Have you ever seen a true short squeeze? With a short squeeze, the averages would not gap up and then stay in a consolidation pattern for the balance of the day and then resolve upward at the end of the day.
As of yesterday, still, only 14 percent of stocks were above their 200 day moving averages. This is not a dead cat bounce because only a few stocks are actually bouncing. A handful of stocks are rocketing.
From here on, the market will rise as much as it is possible to make it rise.
With respect to market manipulation, the consortium doing the managing knows you a lot better than you know them. They are also far more intelligent than I am.
One thing that is generally not recognized is that they have enough buying power to move the market based on their own buying power. As they are successful in doing this, they have nothing to lose as long as the market doesn’t go down. One unrecognized aspect is that there is an ongoing effort to consolidate asset ownership among a handful of elites.
So, how long will this new chapter last? It will last as long as they can make it last. When the effort fails, that is when it all collapses. I am not counting on that happening today, but who knows? Chances are that it will look like the averages are about to collapse for the entire trading day. But, at the close, there will be a rally. Goal one is to close at the high for the day. If that doesn’t work out, then the goal is no black candles. For sure, the market must not be down for the day.
As long as there isn’t a complete collapse, trading will begin in the morning with a new and improved plan. Look for low volume for the foreseeable future. Look for the averages to be slowly ratcheted higher over time. We have all seen this game plan before. Despite the negatives, this can go on for a mighty long time.