Just last week, I added some to my blanket positions in Bear ETFs, mainly TZA. I also own TECS, FAZ, SD and BIS.
None of these are large positions. Altogether I am in negative numbers. I would rather not be, but given my system of trading, that is unavoidable sometimes.
I am not short a single share yet, but I will be. Today’s traders are accustomed to bear markets that snap back like a jack knife. That is not going to happen this time. I am looking at a decline that lasts no less than two years.
So, I am not in a great hurry to load up on shorts. The ALGOs control the direction of the market, but only to the upside. The ideal time to short is when the ALGOs are no longer relevant. When long term holdings start hitting the market, they will be helpless with respect to their trend guiding efforts.
My goal as a trader is to get in and stay in whether long or short for the duration of a move. I would be short up to my neck right now, if the market was not so adeptly rigged up to this point. Further, I don’t know what heroic steps the government will take on behalf of our betters, in terms of a wealth saving programs. I think we can count on some collective efforts to save those who count.
I never use stops. With the ALGOs in charge, a stop is as much as a guaranteed loss. Without the ALGOs, I don’t need stops anyway.
The ideal short for me is a stock that will eventually fall off the board and land in the corporate grave yard. After a bear market is over, many stocks will be destroyed. My hope is to never have to cover.
So, what I am looking for are stocks that are not going to survive. I don’t have a list yet. I am at best an average stock picker. If anyone has idea with respect to good short sale candidates, I am listening.
My first criteria in this effort is a company’s utility to society. As corny as this may sound, stocks with no utility to society are the ones that end up on the pink sheets sooner or later. Big tech, Big Pharma, Big Insurance and others currently have a negative utility over all. In other words they only take and never give. By give, I don’t mean by means of charity. I mean, those which in one way or another enhance lives over all. The industries, just mentioned have enormous political power. That power is diminishing rapidly. A better bet is to find the smaller players in these industries and short those.
I don’t have the time to research all of the opportunities. No no one else does either. That is why I am suggesting collaboration.
None of this is advice. It is just what I am personally doing. If I ever give you advice, don’t take it. I can be right ten times in a row, and then give advice. it almost always backfires.
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