Update on the Possibility of War

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Earlier this month, I put out a notice that based on the various cross currents in play, there would be no war. At that time, I saw a better chance the rumblings would be used to draw short sellers into the stock market, to squeeze in order to help generate a huge rally. News would be the Catalyst. I worked out that way. I have made new fantasy free observations and need to make an update.

I am Forecasting no War  from April 10, 2017

Now chances are are that there actually will be war of some kind or some kind of devastating economic development, perhaps both. What has changed?

First understand that I have no meaningful information. You have none either. Congress and the rest of government do not disseminate information to the public. An ignorant population is no threat to those engaged in the power and money grab free for all.

Despite claims to the contrary, government’s most prominent and overriding function is to keep asset prices high and moving higher. The shock of even a normal stock market correction, not to mention a crash would throw the economy into a major tailspin. War may or may not be inevitable but it is very very likely. Strings of economic disappointments and major events are an absolute certainty. Timing on these things is hard. It is like trying to predict the exact date an obese person with a damaged heart is going to die. Exactly when is not knowable.

Certainly an event or a number of events are in the offing for the immediate future. Just because you have no information does not mean there is none. It means it is not desirable to have ordinary people know the ins and outs about what is really going on.

If asset prices are going to fall it is advantageous to the consortium which manipulates markets to have them drop from the highest possible level. After the decline begins no effort will be spared in trying to stabilize  prices and reverse the decline. Look first for central banks to control the rate of decline and then try to make a consolidation the first moment volume moderates. From a consolidation efforts will then be focused on slowly ratcheting prices higher, drawing in shorts to squeeze and finally attempting to rally the market back into an uptrend.

How do I know these things? I don’t know anymore than you do. I do understand the incentive of the folks involved and know what to expect from them.

Keep this in mind. Any stock market decline has the chance of snowballing. There is no guarantee the tools of manipulation will continue to work given a big enough issue. What I am describing is how the manipulators will try to deal with the downturn.

About Fantasy Free Economics

James Quillian is an independent scholar and economist.
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