Rising stock prices at this point in history are a political agenda. It is as simple as that. There will be no time where supply of stock hitting the market is greater than the demand for stocks and a bear market ensues as a result. The market will continue to be supported no matter what. From the political agenda the manipulation trinity of central banks, corporate buybacks and the planned short squeeze have evolved. It is coordinated. Even though my line of reasoning on this is not unique, there are no accomplished annalists who are operating on that basis. The time will come when much damage to the economy has occurred. It will be commonplace to say, “yes that is the way it was but no one had any way of knowing.” So, when you read or hear that, if I am still alive, I will tell you I told you so. When bad things happen in or because of government, it normally takes over forty years to come out.
I can’t count the number of articles and research reports I read where analysts are putting out sell signals and talking dooms day talk. They are all right except that it is public money keeping the stock market up and not the enthusiasm of investors. Rather than say they are all wrong I will say they are in the wrong joke. Although some of the reports are written specifically to draw in shorts to be squeezed.
The bull market will end when and if the consortium driving it up falls apart or some coercive action is taken to end the manipulation. That could happen tomorrow or it could take a number of years. The point is that the market won’t drop because ordinary people stop investing. There is also the possibility that the economy sustains so much damage that we end up with a situation like we had in 2008. In that case the population at large will be expected to absorb the losses.
I will also say again to watch for the tariffs to be taken off the table around the first week of September. Chances are that traders will be all beared up and in short positions waiting for weakness going into the fall. Shorts are always encouraged and they can count on getting squeezed. For those who may not know, early fall is seasonally the weakest time of the year and also the time of year when crashes are most likely to occur.
The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.
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