For reference see previous stock market comments below.
http://quillian.net/blog/stock-market-now-to-year-end/ 10-19-17 This forecast was right on target.
http://quillian.net/blog/being-right-about-the-stock-market/ from 10-29-17 Here I made no specific forecast as to direction. The general scheme of things unfolded about like I said they would.
If the stock market was not being rigged and managed I could not make as accurate of posts as I am writing.
One of the major points made on 10-10-17 was that moving into November there would be news so good folks could not stand it. That panned out. About the time I said it would happen, the news came out. Certain tech stock had fantastic earnings reports. Accounting laws are not being enforced so there is no telling what the earnings really were. The market responded but it all fizzled out, though the FANGs and some others have not lost much value.
As expected, when the German elections came out contrary to what is good for stocks, markets reacted. As expected, the central banks stepped in and made the day positive for stocks. Since then things have cooled off.
I am not that good of a securities analyst. I am second to none in understanding human behavior concerning economic issues. Smart people actually do have flaws in their reasoning. They go to the well once to get water. It works out so they do the same thing again. They do it over and over again and won’t stop until it stops working. They may not stop then. Most of their success occurs because through political power they get situated above the law. The only reason I got these things right is that I understand, they will do what they always do.
I see signs that deep state cooperation network is falling apart. Folks in high places are turning against one another. I still don’t have a time table but I re-entered the market last week buying a modest portfolio of mostly 3X bear ETFs. These are 1. TECS bearish FANGS 2. TZA bearish small caps 3. BIS bearish pharmaceuticals. I also bought bearish ETFs on most of the indexes.
I don’t give financial advice. I do reveal the trades I make. I don’t use stops because I am not a sucker. I don’t short these days. Any broker you use exposes all of your trades to the high frequency trading firms. With stops you become their food. In a non managed market stops make sense. If a small trader shorts a stock, that means to the manipulators there are thousands like you. This information is used in the same way we all used to use odd lot statistics to determine what small traders were doing. The smart thing to do was to take the opposite side of the market. The manipulators these days take it a step forward. They will run your stop and make sure you lose.
The positions I took last week are fixed. I will not sell for a considerable period of time. I am betting the market will collapse. I cannot accurately say when that will happen but I have a degree of confidence it will be pretty soon. These are the first positions I have taken in about five years.
I am still mostly in cash. I understand the risk I am taking. There is no guarantee I will be right. I suspect the political arena is changing enough that the central banks will not be able to buy outright to the degree they are doing so now. Are friends of the FED operating at a profit? I have no way of knowing for sure but I suspect they are struggling despite the constant assistance they get for carrying the FED’s water. These are not patriots. When getting advance information from the central banks is no longer profitable, they will cut and run. They will probably switch sides and go bearish for the crash. Without the devotion of their friends I doubt the central banks can hold the market up. Volume is not only light. Very few long term holdings are being sold off. That will change.
I am back in the game. This is not advice. It is just what I am doing. I have been doing this type of thing for most of my life. I might lose. Anyone who copies me will lose if I do.