Nothing you can reduce to a number or look at on a chart makes one iota of difference. All that matters it the degree to which the political arena changes. It is changing but ever increasing asset prices is history’s biggest cash cow. Never have so few made so much by fleecing so many. This cash cow will not be abandoned as long as there is the remotest chance of keeping it going.
Here is what matters. Central banks have to give assurance that participants in corporate buybacks will make a profit. This is a very hard sell but so far they are doing it. The public has to remain completely in the dark as to how much they are being fleeced. The traders who are still active must continue to take short positions every time traditional indicators tell them the market is about to collapse. Accounting laws must continue to be not enforced. The media must continue to coordinate reporting with the wishes of the financial sector. After all of this central banks will have to be forced to quit buying outright.
As an investor, using in traditional tools of analysis amounts to and animal offering his neck to a predictor.
This is not a bubble. It is a mature political agenda. It won’t stop until events or circumstances cause the political structure to fall apart.