Mass Shootings

Download PDF Version                                                                 September 6, 2019

Laws, especially federal laws are now being enforced or not enforced depending on political power. The elite of the world are not bound by laws at all. The only time elites are prosecuted for anything is when not prosecuting them puts other elites in a bad situation. Madoff and Epstein are good examples. Organized crime has taken over government and runs it for their own benefit. Don’t think this situation has no effect on the behavior of people at the bottom of the food chain. Continue reading

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Indicators Of An Impending Washout

I am not trading and have not been since 2013. I have been in a 99% cash position since that time. This doesn’t mean I will never trade again. It just means getting little or no return is my best option. Opportunities have abounded because the market has rocketed higher over and over again over the past 6 years. One of the interesting things about investing is that more fortunes are constantly flying in front of your nose than ones you take advantage of. The fact is that stock prices are manipulated to such a degree any indicators I use function as traps. I simply have no way of knowing how long the stock market can be elevated by means of government inspired affirmative stock market action. So, I have been on the sidelines. As for missed profits, others are welcome to them because they are accepting a degree of risk I have never seen in financial assets before. Anyone who has been long either by luck or expert calculus deserves what they have earned. Anyone now who can figure out how to keep their profits will be doubly deserving.

I still keep indicators because I will be back in eventually, provided there is still a stock market and a United States of America and I am still alive. I am going to show some indicators I keep to illustrate just how much danger there is in holding equities right now.

Notice the assenting head and shoulders pattern for Exxon Mobil (XOM). XOM is only one stock and not an index. But, patterns like that of XOM abound. The topping pattern covers a period of over 20 years.  What does it mean when 20 year long head and shoulders patterns break their necklines? It means a once per century washout and complete economic chaos for 5 to 20 years.

The chart below shows the total ETF volume as a percent of regular stock volume. During this long period of affirmative stock market action, a significant increase in relative ETF volume has reliably predicted bullish market turns. For the past year it has not been nearly as reliable. One of the things the manipulation consortium does is load up on bullish derivatives before goosing the averages. There has been no bear market since I have been keeping this index. Chances are signals will be reversed in a bear market. Look at the red ellipse. Relative ETF volume literately went off the charts on Friday. That means one of two things. Either the Deep State is planning to commit unprecedented resources to getting the bull market back on track starting on Monday. Or, they are giving up and loading up on bearish derivatives instead. My guess is that it is the ladder.

TZA is a popular 3X bearish ETF. TZA volume has suddenly rocketed to an extreme level. That is a good indication that folks who have rigged the market to the bullish side are flipping and plan on making windfalls on a significant ensuing drop. It also lends credence to the guess that super high ETF volume is occurring in advance of a washout.  Overall volume is increasing on the downside. To control the market, the Deep State must keep volume down. Folks may be selling without their permission. The nature of trading volume cultivated or otherwise has been perfect ALGOS and all who participate in rigging the market. That can change. As it is, almost all volume comes from from trades that last from less than a second to those which exit before the close. When long term holdings start hitting the market, the Deep State’s job may be too difficult. What happens when split second trading prowess ceases to be an asset. There are reasons why low volume is cultivated.

One time tested market breadth indicator is the percent of stocks trading higher than their 200 day moving averages. Unless averages are manipulated higher purposefully there is no way, stock averages are going to make new highs with only around 53% of stocks trading above their 200 day moving averages. Breadth divergences are typical at turning points in financial history. This is one of those times and the poor market breath is much worse than would occur in a free market setting.

I have made the point many time that using indicators to trade is pointless when supply and demand are not what is causing stock prices. It sure works that way over short and mid term trades. This it the first time I have seen long term indicators this negative. They usually do look negative in a market rigged to the plus side, but not this bad.

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

Fantasy Free Economics YouTube Channel

Fantasy Free Economics recommends the following blogs.

Woodpiler Report Of Two Minds Liberty Blitzkrieg Mises Institute Straight Line Logic Paul Craig Roberts Straight Line Logic

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Bailouts Begin When Organized Support Fails

Download PDF Version                                                                  July 18, 2019

Do not think that the stock market has reached new highs for any other reason than organized support or affirmative action for stocks. Notice that lazy writers of most articles still expect the financial markets to correct in the same way markets have always changed direction.  That is not the case. Markets have been completely manipulated and are still being manipulated. Organized support will fail. At that time, new bailouts will begin immediately. Bailouts will begin before a bear market is even officially acknowledged. The market is barely off new highs and there is an aura of panic in the air already.  Waiting too long is risky. It is better to begin the bailouts before the public has time to gain information and raise objections.

Stealth bailouts have already begun. When Federal Reserve members and other economists say that inflation is needed, what they are really saying is that we need to bail out borrowers. Economists are routinely paid to use their credentials to justify sinister policies thought up by the parties who hire them. What will the trade war do in addition to impoverishing consumers by way of higher prices? The trade war will create much inflation and that will be to bail out holders of massive debt both public and private. If you don’t know how inflation serves as a tax and reduces debt, type a few key words into a search engine and read about it. It takes less than ten minutes.

The purpose of government is misunderstood. It is tempting to go with the lofty definitions learned in school and in popular culture. More important is how government is used. Fantasy Free Economics defines everything according to how it functions and not according to how it is explained to society.

Government is supposed to administer justice. Does it? No it does not. It serves more as a medium for controlling markets and managing the behavior of others for profit. To understand government, that is the process that needs to be focused on. I study government in keeping with what it really does and not according to what it is imagined to do.

The wealthiest people in the world basically have the United States government and most others working on their behaves. Who owns most of the world’s equities? They do. Since they have the enormous political power it takes to dictate government policy, they are doing just that. It makes sense that they would use government as a means of creating an ever rising stock market. They have and they will as long as it is possible but it won’t last forever. Chances are it won’t last much longer at all.

When the stock market fails the bailouts will begin. The same group that has had the political power to create government sponsored financial markets has enough political power to limit any losses by insisting on bailouts.

It has to be early in the collapse because the political structure of the country is starting to change. If they wait too long, they will have lost their advantage of political power and won’t be able to get their way.
The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

Fantasy Free Economics YouTube Channel

Fantasy Free Economics recommends the following blogs.

Woodpiler Report Of Two Minds Liberty Blitzkrieg Mises Institute Straight Line Logic Paul Craig Roberts Straight Line Logic



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Acceptable Alternatives To The Truth

Download PDF Version                                                                         July 2, 2019

In explaining economics and politics, I have a complete advantage over all others who are doing the same thing, simply because I do not believe lies. That is not an unfair advantage. Anyone else can do the same thing. In politics, although the truth is in everyone’s tool box it is never used. Any politician who tells the truth is at an immediate disadvantage. When talking about politics I start by knowing I am not hearing the truth regardless of its source. Continue reading

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Democrats 2020

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The Democrats face a huge problem in winning the presidency in 2020. All of what each of them suggest that government do, are not possible for government to do. Self interest is the motivating force behind everything that is accomplished by government. Normally, this is not a problem because citizens are prone to voting their fantasies. Continue reading

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Role of Government

Download PDF Version                                                                           July 28 2019

One of the basics of Fantasy Free Economics is that institutions and individuals are treated according to how they function and not how they are defined. So, it is natural that I explain the role of government in a different light than is generally popular.

What is the role of government in our lives? Government is always given a lofty definition and noble purpose. The one below is typical. Continue reading

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It Is Much Worse Than It Looks

Download PDF Version                                                                December 24, 2018

The mention of the Plunge Protection Team is a trial balloon. How much in the name of bailouts is the public willing to swallow? Suppose the public turns out to be less than enthusiastic to the idea of of serving a giant crime syndicate for a few more decades?  Does that mean no bailouts? That would only mean more force would have to be used to convince the public to be more patriotic. Who knows? The public might swallow the whole thing. Americans are trained from infants to promote their own poverty. They have been doing just that enthusiastically since the middle of the Reagan administration. Continue reading

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The Snake Like Minute By Minute Chart Pattern

This is the minute by minute of GOOG.  Notice the huge gap up on earnings news. After the gap up, the price goes into a long snake like pattern. Normally it gets goosed at the end of the day. Sometimes goosing is not enough and it drops back anyway.

Patterns like this would not exist in an honest market where price is determined by normal buying and selling. It terms of manipulating stocks, it is a whole lot easier to stabilize a price than it is to cause it to keep going up. Continue reading

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They Are Not Going To Quit

Download PDF Version                                                                    February 15, 2019

If the stock market drops, the Deep State is out of business. So, the stock market is not going to drop. As a matter of fact priority number one in Washington is to make sure the Deep State stays in business. The Deep State only faces two dangers that I can think of. Although unlikely, the public could wake up and discover that the Deep State is a crime syndicate. The public is controllable because the Deep State owns the media. Continue reading

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Eyes On September

Download PDF Version                                                                       June 18 2019

How could there be so many signs of an impending recession and bear market with stock prices still flirting towards making new highs? That question is hard to answer if it is assumed that mom and pop along with the hedge funds and other normal investors and traders are driving the market up. “How about this bubble?”, you might ask. “Who are these guys, buying stock when the economy is on the verge of falling off a cliff?” To see it this way, all we have to do is figure we have all the information available and there is nothing going on in the world that we don’t see or understand. Continue reading

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