Understanding the United States Economy

Don’t think for a minute that government economic policy, Federal Reserve and other is beyond the understanding of the average person. Don’t misunderstand, the math is hard. Most Americans have never studied advanced calculus and statistics. What needs to be understood is that it takes complicated math to describe the even the simplest activities in society.

In looking at the economy, basic ideas are about the same in sophistication as are plays drawn in the sand in a sandlot football game. The chances that any of the plans will benefit society are a lot slimmer than the sandlot football play resulting in a first down.

So, what is going on in the economy? What is determining global economic activity? All economic success today is dependent upon the stock market moving higher. If stocks drop, it is curtains for the United States economy. The sandlot Federal Reserve plan being used says that “rising asset prices cause economic growth.” Secondly, as wealth and income grow, the expectation is that the pump will be primed, the weather eventually be fine and everyone at the bottom can dive in and all will be happy.

Of course, I disagree because I actually understand economics. Government economists may or may not understand economics. It doesn’t matter either way. Government economists are payed to justify political initiatives. The most brilliant person in the world has no utility to society if he is dishonest.

How about proof? As a rule, economists are never expected to prove anything. That is with the exception of economists who disagree with official public policy. What I offer is a complete understanding of human nature. When government policy changes, incentives of every citizen country change in response. Really smart people, much smarter than those who make policy, immediately start gaming government’s decision. There is no chance at all the population as a whole will reap any benefit. Again, government is about taking not giving. As long as the recovery continues, wealth will become more and more concentrated at the top. The recovery will stop when the Stock Market finally collapses. An actual depression will occur. The economy will have failed and along with it, our broken system of self government.

The deep state is moving the stock market higher because of the consequences to them of not doing so.

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How Corporate Insiders are Paid

The public gets upset when learning just how high corporate salaries and bonuses are. These high amounts don’t constitute a state of being overpaid. What the public doesn’t get is that these amounts pale in comparison to what corporate insiders steal from the country.

The way to get paid the most in the shortest period of time is to convince government to artificially increase stock prices. The Federal Reserve is under what amounts to a political directive to force stock prices up. Lower interest rates and a huge money supply increase are only part of the picture. There are phone calls. There is intimidation. There is every kind of off the record communication a person could imagine. The Fed needs higher stock prices. Phone calls go out to corporations. It goes something like this. “Joe, this is Bob from the Federal Reserve. We are doing a little survey here to get a handle on corporate plans for the next year. The wealth effect seems to be having an influence. Are you guys planning any buybacks this year? We think it is good for the economy. We keep interest rates low to make these things possible. Some of the central banks are buying stocks outright……….” The corporate insider reads this as the Fed pressuring them to do. buybacks. The Fed has their backs. They are taking no risk.

How does this work out for the corporate insiders. They buy shares back and their stock rockets to astronomical levels. Of course they all own one hell of a lot of stock. The money they make this way is far greater than the enormous salaries and bonuses they get in addition.  This is why the stock market is going up. The public will pay for this. They don’t even know what is going on.

The long term on this it the destruction of the entire economy. Why? Put the rich on welfare and they become lazy just like the poor. The rich being lazy is catastrophic. The poor being lazy is only unfortunate.

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A Great Explanation

Charles Hugh Smith who writes the of two minds blog has written a great article explaining how the economy really works.



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Blow off Top?

The media is full of stories identifying the current market action as a blow off top. Is there any possibility that it is not?

Pundits everywhere are still explaining the situation in terms of what is likely to happen in a free market. Comments and articles are everywhere. Multitudes of smart people with enormous knowledge of stock market history are treating the blow off scenario as a foregone conclusion.

All of these smart people are coming up with explanations based on their observations of a God like anointed species. Being fantasy free, I am studying an aggregation of animals savagely using any means available to get what they want. The species I study is real. The one they study is completely imaginary.

What do we know based on studying the behavior of brilliant savages? There is a consortium with enormous wealth and political power purposefully elevating stock prices? Why would there be such a consortium? Using government as a means of increasing the value of everything a person owns is a great way to make money. Using political power to drive up stock prices might be the fastest and most seamless way to make huge risk free profits the world has ever known. How do I know this is the case? That is what fantasy free is all about. With no fantasies or euphemisms, what appears true has an almost 100% of actually being true. As rewarding as fantasies and euphemisms are they are prisms through reality is seen. Anyone with 50 years trading experience can see that natural forces would never generate the market results we have been seeing for a number of decades. I don’t know who is part of the consortium or who knows who is evolved. It is there and there is no point in pretending otherwise.

So, this is not really a bubble. This is the achievement of a long standing political goal. Chances are that the political system will have to collapse before or after the economy fails completely before the asset enhancement initiative will be discontinued.

An ordinary American sees government as an institution devoted to administering justice. Government is a place to go to get what you want out of others. That is all government does. Economists and pundits just can’t deal with what government really is so you get analysis based on erroneous and imaginary ideas.

Do not doubt that there is a powerful consortium driving up stock prices for their sole benefit. Americans loudly object to socialism but more wealth and income is transfered by using government here than the world has ever seen in a nation. Classic socialism prevents wealth from ever accumulating. In our top down system wealth transfer goes to the top. Total wealth ends up being destroyed just the same in the end.

Clearly the consortium owns the world’s central banks. Before equity prices collapse efforts will be finish to socializing the equity markets by having the central banks just buy up supply that would otherwise collapse the market.

Without a consortium managing stock prices, all of todays pundits calling this a bubble, would just sit back and watch their predictions come true. Since this is a political creation and not an actual market, there are many more possible outcomes than what we would experience if excited investors had driven the market this high. The top that will occur will be much more complex than a top based on natural market forces.

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The Game of Dominance and Subservience

Would it not be nice to have a board game called Dominance and Subservience? Perhaps if enough people played the game, it would come to light that life exists in a system of dominance and subservience.

It is the job of each species to dominate and make use of as many other species as possible. Dominate all of the other species and have them serve mankind. They don’t all get a bad deal. Dogs volunteer to be dominated and get a decent deal in return. Dogs end up trading freedom for comfort and are content when able to do so.

Human being are the dominant species living in the world today. Humans not only dominate all other worldly species, they also dominate and make servants of each other. Dominance and subservience are such an important part of life, the process is sometimes hard to notice. Subservience is almost always voluntary as with dogs.

Early in life, humans gain some knowledge of what they are capable of and who and how many people they can influence. Decisions are made to serve in exchange for comfort, mostly when individuals have concluded in their own minds that it is their best option for survival. None of this is spoken.

Some are more successful at the game of Dominance and Subservience than others.  What becomes of the most successful players of the game? These folks become presidents, congressmen and CEOs of huge corporations. The very most successful are private citizens who control enough wealth to dictate policy to government. World leaders are among the very best at dominance and subservience. Power and money are the rewards.

Where is the game of dominance and subservience played? It is played everywhere but the greatest contests go on in and around government. Democracy turns out to be a predator’s playground. Government’s primary activity turns out to be that of those with enough power getting what they want through government and having others pay for it.

Ordinary citizens fall in the trap of believing elected officials are motivated by ideology and are trying to improve the country. Governments have never operated that way.


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Deep State and Legal Pot

Why would the deep state be comfortable with legal marijuana? It is a universal error to believe government consists of people doing what is right by the people who elect them. Government consists of multitudes of opportunists working tirelessly to get what they want out of the process. Do you believe otherwise? You are not alone if you do. You are part of the huge majority. What is the job of government? It is to administer justice in an unbiased manner. That has never happened in the history world. Citizens assume that it government functions as it is designed to. The public believes corruption is the exception not the rule.

Citizens function on the basis that government is a benevolent parent and that when things go wrong it is a mishap. Government only serves as a way to get things and have others pay for it. Nothing else happens. Wishing does not cause things to be true.

The more comfortable, distracted, comfortable and complacent, the more useful the citizen is to those making use of government to get what they want. What is needed out of the average American? An American best serves the deep state as a consumer of overpriced goods and services. An American is trained to promote his own poverty. Do things with the group in mind. Believe your leaders. Trust authority. Fight wars for profit. All of that is the role of the citizen.

A citizen who is stoned everyday is not going to object to much of anything or join groups for the purpose of reining in government. What about medical users? Are there really that many? Probably there aren’t.

The costs of legal marijuana to the deep state has to do with putting big pharma at a disadvantage and taking away profits from organized crime. Those are powerful entities which constantly make use of government as a business tool. Legalizing cannabis would hurt them severely. But far more in the deep state will benefit from increasing the number of mush minded Americans. Keep American comfortable. Poor is o.k. but give no one a reason to rebel. Rebels are not good resources. Go along to get along and you are just what the deep state needs to hold on to the economy. Mellowing out the population even more than it is will outweigh any benefits insisted upon by big pharma and organized crime. Mellow docile citizens make the greatest resources. Big pharma and organized crime will get out maneuvered this time The big hustle these days is in the financial markets and new crypto currencies.

The deep state wants no American thinking. If they did they would wake up and stop promoting their own poverty. Donald Trump and Jeff Sessions are in the business of selling favors while pretending to act in the public interest. Nothing will serve them better than a bunch of heads lying in the couch stoned and enjoying the good life. Keep them warm, content and stupid. They will believe anything you tell them. That is the best deal for the deep state. And, who owns your government? Certainly not you.

Legal pot is just what the deep state needs to continue shaping public behavior.


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Sessions Caves on Cannabis

Zero Hedge reports today as if Session is about to rein in states legalizing cannabis/


Nothing could be further from the truth. A fantasy free look tells a different story. Why would a man like Jeff Sessions support continuing to enforce laws that virtually no one has any intention of obeying and local police only enforce when they feel like it? Surely some one as smart as Sessions would not want to keep laws on the books which have no effect on whether or not people engage in the behaviors the laws are meant to prevent. That is in the absence of an incentive. Who does Sessions owe? Sessions owes the private prison lobby and big pharma.

Sessions owes what cannot be delivered. He needs a way out of his promises. So, the decisions to go after legal marijuana are being passed to federal prosecutors on the state level. What prosecutor in California is going to take on the general population which is now doing back flips over their new found opportunity to obtain their favorite products, recreational and medicinal? Defuse the decision making process and take the heat off oneself. That is what Sessions is doing.  What about federal prosecutors where pot is not legal in any way, Texas for example?  Well, for those prosecutors the heat is off. That will make it easier for the not legal states to make it legal. What are prosecutors other than self serving human beings? Most will take the path of least resistance and not pick fights that have a high potential outcome of making them look foolish.

So, what will Sessions do? What will Trump do? Sessions is doing what is good for Sessions, probably with the advice and council of his boss. Trump will do what is good for Trump. Once some time has gone by, Trump will call a press conference. He will state clearly that marijuana should not be a schedule 1 drug. He will go on about how much he is opposed to drinking and taking drugs, but it is still important to treat a drug as what it actually is. Why will Trump do such a thing? It makes good political sense. So it will happen.

This is a fantasy free look at the cannabis issue. Fantasy free is no fun but a fantasy free look always exposes folk’s deepest motivations and disregards fancy words which are used just used to control public opinion.


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Stock Market Certainties for 2018

Look at the global scene and the valuations of all asset classes. The free market system has been dismantled. The success of the economy depends upon the degree to which asset values increase. It really works the other way around and will eventually. Only a small percent of the world’s population has benefited from the economic recovery. So, of course the stock market should collapse. Should is not certainty. Should is based on what we can see. What we can’t see are the ongoing efforts to prevent what seems natural from taking place.

Here is the certainty. All of the world’s resources will be focused on saving asset values, especially stock prices.  All of the world’s resources have been devoted to increasing asset prices for decades. The process by which all of this works will not come to an easy end. It is way too profitable for that to happen. Who has money? Who is rich and powerful enough to dictate government power?

Suppose 2018 starts with a sell off similar to the one which occurred in 2015. The odds of that are really good. There is clearly some supply hanging over the market. Who doubts that it will be managed as best as possible with organized support? We have forced uptrends. Controlled corrections are part of the package also.

So, what happens if the supply hitting the market is too overwhelming? An emergency will be announced. Citizens will be asked to absorb any huge losses occurring. To “save the world” central banks will sop up all of the supply hitting the market. All of the world’s energy will focus on restarting forced up trends in stocks.


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How to Save the United States

To save the United States citizens will have to give up personal happiness for a period of time. There are those who choose to believe and there are others whose beliefs are determined according to what they actually see and experience. Choosing to believe is the mode that is almost universally employed. Fantasy is the universal source of happiness. Happiness comes from choosing to believe what is pleasant and indulging in pleasure. Happiness is generated by seriously believing many things that are untrue. Why? Dealing with it that way makes life tolerable.

Fantasy is a huge driver of economics profits. People who fantasizing spend far more than they would by staring reality coldly in the face. Avoiding dealing with critical issues is a great way to minimize stress. Heck, without fantasy, how many would actually want to stick around.  Reality is something that can never be totally avoided.

Once or twice in a century, every political system and every economic system resets to reality or at least something closer to it. Much of fantasy serves to replace the natural uncertainty of the universe with more comforting thoughts. Government is used as a futile tool as a substitute for genuine certainty. But, uncertainty is all there is. Depending on when a person is born, it is possible to live a fantasy filled life without even living through a natural resetting.  A person born at the depth of the Great Depression could conceivably live an entire lifetime without having to give up a single fantasy.

Most people end up living though a life changing period when fantasy based systems come crashing down. Very few Americans expected the great depression. Those who did expect it prepared and suffered a lot less than others.

It does not take any brains to engage in fantasy free thought. Mostly what I can tell you in this blog is what is not true. Knowing that the notions on which thinking in this country is based are not true, puts one at a great advantage in anticipating the future. Americans largely believe they have representation in government. In the coming crisis, they will discover that representation is cosmetic. Citizens have been duped into believing those they elect have a natural incentive to serve them. Citizen do not actually serve the government. Citizens serve politically powerful interests who use government as a way of exploiting them.

The system we have in practice is completely different from the one that exists on paper. So, the system will crumble. The unsuspecting will be at the biggest disadvantage.


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Surviving the “Conservative” Movement

Rhetoric and virtue signaling abound. All around the country TEA Party groups meet. Arms grow longer in order to facilitate patting one another on the back. Offer these folks a bone and they take it. The “conservatives” have now let everyone know who they are and just how right they are. They say “See, we have a tax cut now. Look at that. We are keeping more of it. After all it is our money.” “Nothing wrong with that logic” you say. So there is the entire conservative movement. Who needs liberals when conservatives are so good at doing their job for them?

So what happened to free market discipline? Is it the government’s job to “stimulate” the economy? What failing enterprise would you like to save? “Conservatives” have decided we should borrow more money and pay even less of it back. So, what is the conservative movement going to do next?

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