The economy in the United States is going to collapse. I guarantee it. I am sorry. But still, I guarantee it. Why?
Government honestly cannot stimulate an economy. Economists in countries all over the world are paid to make the case that governments can stimulate economies. Government economists get paid to justify anything government initiative.
No government cannot stimulate an economy but virtually all citizens believe it can and would be scared if the effort was not made. Stimulus can and does misallocate resources and transfer wealth from ordinary folks to the politically powerful.
Why can’t people figure out they are being fleeced? For all but a minuscule portion of history mankind lived as slaves. The minds of modern humans are programmed to serve a master even though officially there is no master. According to the constitution citizens are charged with the responsibility of overseeing government. This concept is acknowledged, appreciated and accepted intellectually. That doesn’t matter. Intellect is not used when people behave in the aggregate. Race memory kicks in. At very deep levels of the mind people treat elected officials as masters.
Perhaps three percent of any population is born with an unlikely set of personality characteristics. These are presidents, congressmen, senators and elected officials of all kinds. They are naturals at getting other people to do things. They feel entitled to what other people have. Perhaps this is natures way of providing masters. They are also very intelligent and acquire power easily. To these kinds, everyone is a potential servant.
The situation we have in the United States is one of aspiring masters and seasoned masters using government as a means of extracting benefits out of the the masses. While citizens have convinced themselves that they are in charge of government they certainly are not. At the deepest levels of their minds, voters are electing the best possible master.
As stimulus progresses, the out with the old and in with the new properties of a free markets are disabled. Resources are allocated more and more inefficiently as time passes. The United States economy can no longer grow because the most important elements of the free market system have been removed and replaced with central economic planning. Is that too simple? Yes it is. It is so simple that complex reasons will be manufactured so as to avoid looking at the true cause. That is where complex models come from.
If you can see that sound economic principles are being violated by law over a long period of time then you can be certain an economic collapse is coming.
In a free market system, government has a huge role to play. Free market discipline must be enforced. Our government does just the opposite. Citizens are hardwired to treat government as their master and they do so. This weakness is used by others who are born with political personalties to exploit the general population.