Although there are claims to the contrary, there are no independent variables in economics. Typically, an economic model will assume one variable will change and other incentives will be undisturbed. In the real world, when one variable changes, all other variables change also. For example the Federal Reserve will increase the money supply and assume that human behavior will remain unchanged in every capacity except the one they are trying to influence. That of course is a gross error. When the Federal Reserve makes a change, the smart people of the world monitor, adjust and find ways to game the fed’s decision.
With Fantasy Free Economics, there are behaviors that can be counted on although these things are not numbers. Natural law will always trump economic dogma. For example, if an economic initiative begins with an immoral action, the costs will outweigh the benefits regardless of the initial logic of the activity. It will take time for the costs to accumulate and benefits can be pointed out initially. In the end the initiative will not work out for the best.
Clearly there is one factor that is somewhat stable, but again it cannot be reduced to a number. That is the stupidity of the general population with respect to political and economic issues. Even this is not consistent and even a little variation can change the direction of the country. As long as people are comfortable, they will not entertain individual thoughts. Thinking is work and work is avoided. As soon as a little suffering begins, thinking emerges as means to escape discomfort and misery. The few people who entertain unique thoughts will be rapidly copied.
As long as Americans are comfortable and not in any personal discomfort, they will believe anything they are told. Change this and levels skepticism start to rise. Currently, words of the media and the old dialog are increasingly falling on deaf ears. Citizens are not believing things automatically. Clearly, there is a new awareness that despite all of the wonderful economic news that is being reported, the average person is falling behind and not able to make personal progress. The degree of suffering is actually increasing. As suffering continues to increase, there will be more interest in making changes in government. The changes asked for may not be of any value however because the new found thinking will be done by a population that is basically ignorant. But, watch for changes.