How to Predict the Future

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It is much easier to successfully predict something is going to happen than it is to come anywhere close in predicting when it will happen.  I have been forecasting the complete collapse of the United States economy for a while. The Great Recession of 2008, as it is called, never really ended. What we have have been calling a recovery is about the same as a man losing his job then borrowing enough money to continue his life style for a few more years. It is really hard to figure out how long it will take lenders to stop loaning him money. But, you can count on that happening.

The only difficulty in predicting the future is the necessity of discarding the belief in comforting lies. Once the comforting lies are gone so is the happiness which came from believing them. A fantasy free life is not for everyone. It is such a high state of sobriety that it can be unpleasant. I explain it but don’t automatically recommend it.

What is it every human on earth is avoiding that is so bad they engage in fantasy so as to escape? There are questions that have no answers. There are things we must do that we would rather not think of ourselves as doing.

We know we are alive but we don’t know what life is. We don’t know what we are or why we are here. Some talk of the gift of life. Is life a gift or is it a forced obligation? What happens to us when we die? Then there is the process of survival.

Notice that the earth operates as a big game of dominance and subservience. Living things live by killing and consuming other living things. The species at the top is the one that best dominates all of the others. Where does leadership come from within a species? Leadership goes to the most dominant animal within the species. The President of the United States, is the most dominant person in the country, possibly in the world.

Our situation is harsh. It is so harsh that fantasy is necessary for survival. A better word for political science would be herd dynamics. A better name for economics would be the study of survival. To predict the future all you need to know is what people are running from and how much fantasy they are indulging in. Then all you have to do is use the gift nature has provided.

Nature provides a way to read the present. Is there danger? Are there opportunities?  A person’s read of the present is extremely accurate provided the mind is free of fantasy and euphemisms. The present moment and how to survive might be as close to reality as we are likely to get. Fantasy is a prism through which the world is viewed. So, to to predict the future just be fantasy free and you accurately assess what behavior leads to what outcome. It works as well on a national level as it does on an individual number. Anybody can do it. The hard part is being fantasy free. Until you get used to it it is like being on a starvation diet or going through withdrawal symptoms.

 

 

About Fantasy Free Economics

James Quillian is an independent scholar,free market economist, teacher and originator of the Fantasy Free approach to economics. Contact: news@quillian.net
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