At the end of June I made a forecast for the fall though October.
The essence of the article was that events and circumstances would be managed in such a way that that any traditional early fall weakness would be over ridden.
Although the forecast wasn’t perfect everything is unfolding about as expected. Everything in the the forecast was based on observing past behavior while looking at the economic arena without the burden of looking through the prism of fantasy.
I had expected that Trump would call off the trade war as a way of goosing the market. That never happened in any meaningful way. Game changing good news was released as I expected but not within five days of labor day.
Most importantly, the market has not fallen as many expected it to do. The market cannot fall without destroying the economy. At this point, this is as serious as it gets. Something in the manipulation mechanism must break in order for there to be a reckoning. Clearly that has not happened yet. It will, but I can’t say when.
The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.
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