There are many instinctive biases that prevent economists from making accurate forecasts and useful economic models. Remember, these are things people do naturally without the aid of reason. One destructive instinctive bias is in seeing the human species in the highest possible light. Leaders are viewed as acting in the best interest of those who put them in office. As a result, elected official are assumed to have motives which are beyond reproach. Public institutions are assumed to be pursuing the noble goals assigned to them. Mankind is assumed to be good.
I suppose, it is good for a species to think good of itself but in practice human kind is about neutral on the goodness scale. There is no way to get a good handle on what is going on in the world while assuming people in general are busily doing what is right.
Economists almost universally operate on the basis that individual persons are naturally industrious and if given freedom will be productive, making good of their time and resources. In truth, for the majority, getting ahead by doing work is a second choice. Having realistic ideas about what to expect out of people goes a long towards making accurate forecasts.
Times Got Really Weird
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