Being Right About The Stock Market

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Below is a link to my stock market forecast for September through mid October. It was more on target than it should be. Humans are not capable of predicting the future with much or any accuracy. That is unless there is some kind of repeating pattern that is being observed.

http://quillian.net/blog/stock-market-now-to-year-end/

I actually expected a little less strength in the fall, but mainly I knew without any doubt, the Deep State through their control of central banks would not let the market correct when it logically would. That is not a sophisticated way of making a forecast. All that is necessary is to know natural market forces are not in play in any way at all.

One outstanding element of the fall forecast is the point that in late October or early November there would be a day where the financial news would be so good that folks just couldn’t stand it. The extraordinary earnings released by some tech giants on Thursday after the close qualifies. Who does not believe that all of the central banks in the world plus friends of the Fed did not know the specifics of these earnings announcements beforehand? Are the earnings real? Who knows” Accounting laws are not being enforced. For the sake of the Deep State’s welfare, earnings can be just about anything. Who is going to be prosecuted for bolstering the bottom line for the world’s elite? How accurate are GDP numbers? Who knows? There are countless ways to report GDP growth. I will say this. On good news day, the market did not perform near as well as I thought it would. I believe from this point on, the market is in no mans land. Will the public discover the degree to which they are being fleeced by government economic policy? Will corporations continue buying on the basis central banks have their backs? Will large and small stock owners suddenly dump their shares at a rate the central banks are unprepared to deal with on a given day?

The determination of the Deep State to keep the averages moving higher is limitless but the economy is close to destruction. With every passing day, the public is getting less and less gullible. The release of the JFK assassination files is demonstrating to everyone that the intelligence agencies are prone to corruption. The stock market is starting to face headwinds that have never before been present.

So, what happens from November through December? That depends upon how much stock central banks buy outright and how easily corporations are coaxed into buying their own shares. It also depends upon the degree to which the public remains unaware of what is actually going on. The seasonal pattern through year end is strong. With that and the unyielding effort to keep the averages moving up chances are things will ratchet higher for the rest of 2017. Probably the breadth will continue to diverge. I am not making a forecast but just laying out a few logical possibilities.

Personally I am content just to have cash on hand when it all collapses. So, I am still not short. Will I ever short this market? I will if there is clear evidence the central banks are no longer in charge and natural market forces were again determining stock prices. If that happened, it would probably happen suddenly and there would not enough time to take positions. I wish I could be more helpful with precise timing. I would not be long any stock under any circumstance right now.

The market is like a rickety old wooden bridge over a deep canyon that people still move across. Who knows exactly when it will give way with all who are on the bridge falling to their deaths? Whatever day it happens few will be expecting it. I am not the kind who will be on the bridge.

About Fantasy Free Economics

James Quillian is an independent scholar and economist.
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