Who Needs The Federal Reserve?

Time-7The Federal Reserve was established in 1914 ostensibly to for the good of the nation. Since 1914, the Federal Reserve has not made one accurate forecast. On every occasion when the Federal Reserve has initiated a program to help the economy, it has had the opposite effect.

Suppose a plane was designed and each test flight resulted in a crash. Who would want to ride in that plane? Not a soul would volunteer. Americans suffer issues with ignorance, character and general awareness.  Members of the Federal Reserve are routinely treated with great reverence and very few people would dream of eliminating the institution. Federal Reserve policy caused the last disaster in 2008 and there is another one in the offing. Suffering will follow.

Who needs the Fed? Everyone who feels comforted by the fantasy of being protected from harm by a public institution.

Despite never having a successful initiative in over 100 years even the world’s most esteemed economists are completely impressed with what the Fed does and hang on every word that comes out the mouth of the chairman.

The way economics is taught, this is no surprise. In mainstream economics, people make individual choices and work is treated as a first choice. In the real world, people do not function as individuals. They belong to aggregations and the herd makes decisions collectively. Mainstream economists treat work as a first choice. Individuals are seen as chomping at the bit to get a job and be productive. Nothing could be further from the truth. In the real world, work is a second choice. An individual will only work once it is clear that there is no way to live off the efforts of others. Thinking is work so thinking is avoided if someone else will think for a person.  Human beings are defined as freedom seekers. They have that potential but freedom is the only asset one is born with. Freedom is constantly bargained off in exchange for comfort.  Economists, with the exception of a few of us cannot possibly be right because the entire discipline as it is taught is based of false assumptions.

Sweet Suzie’s Kool-Aid is one great Curbside Jimmy tune.

Sweet Suzie’s Kool-Aid

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New Stock Market Update

426537_img650x420_img650x420_cropSo far my stock market forecasts for 2016 have been accurate enough. Read through the previous articles for some background if you wish. Further insight will follow.

Stock Market Now Through January  12-29-15

2016 and the Stock Market of Course 1/3/16

Stock Market Heads Up 3-23-16

The forecast made on 12-29-15 has been completely accurate. I am going to update my expectations otherwise it won’t be accurate for the rest of the year. I no longer believe the averages will close up for the year.

I am not using technical analysis. Technical analysis is only effective in a free market setting. When government policy, not free market trading determines stock prices, technical analysis generates loss after loss. High frequency trading firms, friends of the Fed, use trader’s stupid adherence to technical analysis dogma to literally skin them alive.

To know what to expect, I use dog style forecasting. And, that is no euphemistic definitions of one’s self or anything else, complete awareness and knowledge of reoccurring behavior patterns.

The majority of investors still view the Federal Reserve as an autonomous institution staffed by honest economists who know how to improve the economy and are aggressively working in the public interest. I correctly define the Federal Reserve as a political institution that carries out political agendas of politically powerful stock market manipulators. Know that and accept it and you will stay ahead of the game. Chances are that the public will not recognize the Fed’s genuine role for many generations. Given this, chances of a classic bear market developing are minimized. Chances are better that there will be a complete collapse covering a few days or less. Back in December, it looked like a typical Fed inspired short squeeze would hold the averages up through December.

The stock market and the economy will probably collapse on the same day. It will likely work out that way because friends of the Fed are masters at creating low volume uptrends and maintaining them. The only way for actual supply and demand to apply is for the system to break beyond repair. As a rule of thumb in a manipulated market is that slow declines are for drawing in shorts. Rapid declines mean the market, at least temporarily cannot be controlled. Anytime a decline stalls for even a brief period, prices are pushed into what I call launching patterns. These are consolidation patterns that give the appearance that supply is about to take over and a new down leg is about to begin. This is by design. Shorting becomes heavy and the Friends of the Fed start a short squeeze. This process can repeat countless times. Traders for the most part are not aware they are being robbed.

Why will the market crash? The process of providing the elite with seemingly unending profits just for being alive guts the economy of any means of actually growing. The elite have nothing personal against you or I. We are like collateral damage. The rich and the poor have a lot in common other than money. Both have a high incentive to be paid. Each wants to make as much money as possible with the least amount of effort.

The poor are not very good at getting paid. They just go to work. Corporate insiders, given Federal Reserve support, get payed the most and the fastest by running the price of their stock into the stratosphere . Working and generating profits become a waste of time. It takes only a great story and a plan to reap billions in rewards.  For this system to work, the poor and everyone else must buy into the notion that all of this is for their own good.

Timing a market crash is hazardous, but I feel like we are really close. There does seem to be some breaks in the ranks of the the elites. If even one friend of the Fed bolts, everything could come crashing down. Clearly the central banks are buying stocks outright. There is no way to tell how much they will buy or what they can get away with.  To keep friends of the Fed on board, they must be offered a risk free trading environment. These are not patriots and they can only make a profit with the Fed’s thumb on the scales.

My best estimate is that a crash will hit between now and the Republican convention. The most prudent thing a person can do is stay out of the market until after it crashes. Just know that it will. I am still long some bear etfs and short a few stocks and have a slight profit for the year.

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Understanding Trump’s Republican Opposition

 Government is a business. No that is not how it is defined but how it operates. Congress is in the business of extracting countless dollars out of businesses wishing to get laws passed to rig markets.  All pay but only a few reap the rewards when laws are passed.

Donald Trump will break up the billionaires club. The potential  financial losses in the upper 1% are unfathomable to ordinary people. To the elite this will be like Armageddon. The billionaires have a cash cow and there is no limit to what they will do to keep it. Taking government away from the elite 1% to them is like confiscating an ordinary person’s home without paying for it and leaving them broke.

The upper 1 % as it stands, own the government. In their minds they have purchased it.  They have paid enormous amounts in political contributions and expect a return on their investment. Trump is not a saint and he may replace the old billionaires club with a new one with new members.  But, that won’t help the ones who own the government now.

The current owners of our government are also the most brutal of all the earth’s inhabitants. There is no limit to the number of bombs they will drop or soldiers they will send to their deaths to accomplish their financial goals.  Do not doubt that they will murder Donald Trump if they get the chance.

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Is Donald Trump a Conservative?

a559425d1bfb41acc0812c901ea2da78Being a conservative is the easiest job in politics today. Ted Cruz is defined as a conservative. Has Donald Trump called himself a conservative? Basically, all Republicans adopt the brand. Rush Limbaugh is a conservative. So is Sean Hannity. Countless American citizens claim to be conservatives.

Candidates, broadcasters and citizens all have one thing in common. Not one is involved in a conservative initiative. None believe in free markets markets either.

It is much easier to be a conservative than a liberal. All it requires is an opinion. Conservative things are different. Conservative things would be repealing laws and closing government agencies.

Some voters believe Donald Trump is a liberal in conservative clothes. Does it really matter? After all there are no plans to do even one conservative thing. In all fairness to Trump, he did mention closing the Department of Education but has said nothing about it since. Enforcing laws is kind of a conservative thing. Trump does want to build a wall closing the Mexican border and that actually constitutes enforcing the emigration law that is already on the books.

Republicans should not frustrate themselves over the fine points of who is a conservative and who isn’t. Being a conservative is only important for being accepted by ones peers and maintaining self esteem. Since it is only make believe and there is no conservative agenda why get frustrated?

Why? Because conservative is only an identity thing. There are no conservative initiatives or even conservative agendas in the United States.

Useful Definitions

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Out With The Old In With The New

Out with the old,  in  with the new is what happens in a recession.  Government intervention prevents this process from occurring. When an economy slows down the damage being done is clear and obvious. The in with the new is occurring but it is  invisible in the present. Government  programs are initiated for the purpose of “saving the economy.” Because the in with the new part is stifled, the economy never recovers. There are other issues but efforts at stimulus guarantee a recovery will not occur and that a recession much worse that the one that was supposed to be avoided will occur and will be worse than the initial problem.

The recession that began in 2008 was ostensibly fixed, except that it really wasn’t. The new recession that is beginning now will  be much more devastating.  Economics only deals with simple issues that are  based on incentives and human behavior. The current  situation is simple and that is all there is too it.

Sweet Suzie’s Kool-Aid is a fine Curbside Jimmy tune.

Sweet Suzie’s Kool-Aid

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Accidents Can Happen

imagesVJ3Q2JK7The way evolution works is that some accidents are better than others. When an accident occurs in the biology of a species and it results in a greater ability to survive, it evolves into a new genetic standard. It works the same way with individual and group behaviors.

Notions of democracy had already taken root in England when colonies were established in America. Every time freedom increased, so did economic prosperity. It was the nature of the new land that independent living became a necessity among settlers. Self government evolved naturally. Self government worked better than serving a king but it hasn’t worked perfectly.

Behavior in groups is instinctive. While governments began operating in line with democratic principals, citizens were still mentally comfortable in serving a king. Instinctive behavior can be over-ridden but people are completely uncomfortable in doing it that way. People are willing to elect representatives but they relate to them as if they were kings or queens.  While constituents are charged with controlling government, mentally they are looking for the kindest master.

In 2016, it is extremely important to know what to expect from voters. Intriguing ideas will flourish but votes will be cast in keeping with  instinctive beliefs which are more powerful than beliefs established by intellect. All people will deny making instinctive decisions. All will claim to be thinking individually but they won’t be.

Instinctively, government is seen as having magical powers. According to instinctive reasoning government can fulfill any fantasy. Voters will believe anything they are promised. Instinctive beliefs still determine the outcome of elections.

Despite centuries of failures and not one success in over 50,000 years, voters will trust government to intervene in the economy. Voters will believe that wars are fought to insure their freedom when there is no evidence that this is the case. The worse the economy gets, the more citizens will trust government to fix it. Of course, embracing free market principles would cause improvements by leaps and bounds. But, instinct guides citizens to put government in charge of the economy. This is sad but that is the way it works.

Here is Curbside Jimmy’s Sweet Suzie’s Kiil-Aid.
Sweet Suzie’s Kool-Aid

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God Save The King

Thecrown influence of kings has not disappeared. Kings, queens and chiefs all evolved along the same path. Back in the old days people banded together for protection. In basic societies, the strongest, most powerful and smartest took control. In return for providing protection this person got to live off the efforts of the others in the group.  Kings, for the most part, are gone but the function of the powerful living off others continues.

Today, billionaires are the new kings. I have explained rent seeking on other occasions. Basically it amounts to using political power to privately impose taxes on society in general. In the days when kings did this, they did at least provide protection.  Today government taxes the population but corporations and certain rich individuals also tax to the overall population.  This presents a problem with lowering or eliminating the corporate income tax. A corporate tax of 35% sounds high and it is when compared to corporate taxes imposed in other countries. American corporations have the power to levy taxes as well as bear a responsibility to pay taxes. Obamacare is a good example of a tax imposed by corporations.  Corporations use political power, literally, to extract money out of the people who occupy the country. Make no mistake, when corporations get laws passed to pay them simply because they exist, that is a tax in every sense of the word.

What we are seeing in the 2016 election process are billionaires panicking over the prospect of loosing their king privileges. It has been long observed that human beings will go to greater extremes to hold on to what they have than they will to gain something new. As the fall election gets closer, the efforts of the rent seekers to hold on to power will become totally viscous.  The common word used to describe these folks is “the establishment.” Do not be surprised at attempts on the lives of candidates they cannot control. Should Americans wise up and unseat a large number of incumbents, do not expect them to leave. Chances are just as good that the president will declare martial law for a transition period and then never end up making the transition.

The establishment, as they are called, have no moral compass and will stoop to murder, theft, violence  or any other method to hold on their enormous power.

 

 

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You Can’t Fool All The People All Of The Time

1392172209000-Abraham-LincolnAbe Lincoln famously said, “you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.” He did not say that the number who cannot be fooled are so small in number that they are statistically insignificant.

How long have Republicans believed that subsidizing billionaires is part of free market economics?

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Truth is Killing Trump

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Trump has told the truth a number of times during has campaign.

The truth has no utility in politics! It isn’t used. Voters won’t put up with it. Politics is about people using government to get what they want. Voters vote for fantasies. Donald Trump began his campaign by telling the truth a few times.

After that he joined the others and focused on lies. “Make America great again.” is a lie with lots of appeal. Go back in time and try to find that golden era of greatness and you will never find it. No such time existed. The process of citizens losing freedom and government serving only those with enormous political power goes back to before the American Revolution. Corruption began early and has continued unabated to the present. Trump knows this is dishonest but guess what. People love it.

Trump gets in trouble when he is truthful. The other politicians are experienced so they stick to the lies they know people want to hear. Trump’s remarks on abortion were right on and they hurt him badly. Voters punished him just as is to be expected. Anyone can see the folly of passing a law and then administering no punishment. Voters fantasize about getting what they want without experiencing any inconvenience. Voters fantasize about government using its “magical powers” to seamlessly make abortion go away just by making it against the law.

The truth is not good enough. Sometimes it is harsh. Politicians who get elected come up with stuff that sounds better. If Trump has learned his lesson and sticks to lies, he can still get the nomination on the first ballot.

Here is Curbside Jimmy’s tune. It Seems Like All M Friends Are Dogs These Days.
It Seems Like All My Friends Are Dogs These Days.

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Dangers of Rent Seekers and Slavery

rent_seeking_corporate_welfareSlavery was so common just 300 years ago hardly anyone raised any objections. For the human species, work is a second choice. Efforts to live off the efforts of others have been ongoing for all of recorded history.  The simplest way to gain from someone else’s work is to own another human. Most Americans have ancestors who were slaves. Africans became slaves after becoming prisoners of war in their own continent.  White Europeans were serfs, bound to the land and were slaves to the land owners or landlords.

Early economists used the term rent seeking to describe the activities of the land owners on their European countries. They received rent off of the land they owned and always had owned. Their land was not bought with earned money. The land was passed down for countless generations.  The landlords produced nothing and contributed nothing towards the growth of the economy.

Modern rent seekers are the financial institutions and individual wealth holders who through their enormous political power dictate government policy. With the cooperation of congress, the wealthy pass laws that force the public to buy their products and services. Federal Reserve policy elevates profit margins that would not exist in a free market setting. Prices consumers pay remain high. In the modern world, this process is a substitute for slavery. No, in the United States, human beings cannot be owned outright. Humans can be forced, by the use of government, to work for less than they are worth. They can be forced to pay higher prices due to monetary policy that is carried our for the purpose of artificially elevating profit margins. They can be forced to buy certain goods and services.

In the old days, at least slaves knew they were slaves and wanted out of the situation. Today Americans are completely unaware of what is being taken from them.

 

 

 

 

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