Stock Market Seasonal Pattern

The period between August 1 and October 17 on average is the weakest period of the year. A complete rout of the stock market was avoided. For the next several weeks the attention of our manipulators will be devoted to showing that the correction is over.

There is enormous supply hanging over the market. The attitude of the Fed is changing. It is probably out of fear of being exposed. Continue reading

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The Economy is Destroyed

How can I declare that the economy is destroyed when official numbers look as terrific as as they do? How can I make such a bold declaration when the average economist is focused on a come and go recession if anything at all? The answer is simple. I am looking at what really matters. Continue reading

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Expect The Announcement

                                      The Announcement

The President of the United States will make a speech outlining the steps which must be taken to “save the world.” Just as the stock market enters a genuine bear market and selling accelerates and can’t be controlled, The Federal Reserve of the United States will announce a stock buying program to “save the world.” There will be bi partisan agreement that this needs to be done. Continue reading

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As I am writing this, the stock market is getting massive organized support. In saying that I am not revealing a big secret. Still there are multitudes waiting for traditional forces of supply to overtake demand, thinking that is how the bull market will end. That will never happen. One of the pillars of manipulation must break. What does it take to move stocks higher independently of natural market forces? These are the necessary ingredients.

1.) Ignorance: The public is not aware of what is going on and is clueless as to what it costs them in terms of real income.

2.) Media: Although it is a remote chance, parts of the media, could start reporting the financial news honestly.

3.) Central Banks: Central banks are under political directives to keep stock prices moving higher. Political directives don’t necessarily come form sovereign nations. Wealthy interests put pressure on central banks independently of any government. With tensions rising around the world, one or more countries could reign in their central banks and use them instead for purposes of economic warfare. This is a remote possibility.

4.) Friends of the Fed: Friends of the Fed range from the algos and other firms which get advanced information from the central banks. Central banks must insure these firms of risk free profits in order to make their participation worthwhile. These are the organizations which orchestrate short squeezes, hold volume down and in general manufacture artificial demand for stocks. There is a genuine chance that these firms are having trouble making profits. If their profits cannot be guaranteed, they will cut and run. These firms are the weakest links in the chain.

5.) Corporate Buybacks: Corporations must be provided cost free funds in order to buy back their own shares. The latest source is from the Trump corporate tax cuts. This is a very weak link also although it has been completely reliable. Sources of funds for buybacks may run dry. Profits will not be used for buying back shares. This source of demand could dry up.

Deterioration of the Economy: The economy actually is unraveling but the damage is occurring at the bottom of the food chain and moving higher every day. This is what happens when political power rather than price is used to allocate resources and ration goods and services.

For the market to fall in a meaningful way, one of these factors must change. As long as the world’s political structure holds together, when stocks actually do fall, every attempt will be made to pass losses from rich stockholders onto the backs of the public. Chances are real good that central banks will start buying stocks openly for the purpose of as of “saving the world.”

The one thing I am sure of is that natural economic forces alone will not cause a meaningful market decline until damage to the economy is beyond repair. Something will have to break and it will.

I have written extensively about stock market manipulation. To read these other articles, type manipulation in the search bar and they will all show up.

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

Fantasy Free Economics recommends the following blogs.

Of Two Minds Liberty Blitzkrieg Mises Institute Straight Line Logic Paul Craig Roberts

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Simple Answers

Simple answers? Where human behavior is concerned all answers are simple. Complex answers evolve out of mankind’s propensity to avoid entertaining the truth. How is the truth avoided? It starts by ascribing the most flattering definition to each human being, each public institution and all legal human activities. Continue reading

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Facebook Update

A short while back I did a post on the attempted controlled correction in the FANGS.   FANGs A Controlled Correction Facebook had just traded under it’s long term trendline. I made the point that in all probability that would bring on a short squeeze.  Friends of the Fed use technical analysis dogma to trap all traders large and small. Traditionally, when a long term trendline is broken, that is a good time to take out a short. Traders for the most part still see it that way. Anytime a lot of short positions are taken because of a pattern like this, it is a gift to the manipulators. There was short squeeze in facebook but it didn’t last.

When I say cooked, I am not being cute. Stocks like Facebook have a life span. Facebook is about like AOL was when its best days were over. There is a big difference however. Facebook is dishonest. AOL was not. Most Americans have never experienced a genuine bear market. Even the dotcom bear market was quick and out of the way compared to the 1973-1975 bear market. The market really did not start recovering until 1982. In a real bear market a stock like facebook can drop below $5.00 per share. I am not kidding.

All of the FANG stocks have vulnerabilities that cannot be reduced to numbers. One threat is simply a change in tastes and preferences. No one can predict that but look at the NFL. Their declining viewership is not all because of the kneeling issue. People’s interests do change on an aggregate basis. Not one of these companies would be where they are today without criminally low interest rates.

Human herding has become the biggest profit engine in the world. That won’t be as effective in the next ten years as it has been in this decade. Back in the days when I used to write radio ads I noticed that people build up a tolerance to any advertising approach after it had been used for a while. As being herded works against people, they won’t come to grips with the fact are being led around by their nose. They will just quit responding when someone tries to manage their opinions and behaviors.

All of these companies are vulnerable to changes in behavior which can come from out of nowhere. None of them have much if any utility to society. In a genuine depression, companies which do have utility to society are the only ones which survive. The time will come when there are no safe stocks. Just owning a stock will represent a guaranteed loss.

Don’t forget that the economy actually has been destroyed. The free market concept has been discarded.  That alone is enough to destroy the country.
The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

Fantasy Free Economics recommends the following blogs.

Of Two Minds Liberty Blitzkrieg Mises Institute Straight Line Logic Paul Craig Roberts

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What is Fantasy Free Economics?

What is fantasy free economics? Fantasy free economics is standard economic dogma with all fantasy removed. After that natural law is added in. All of the erroneous assumptions are removed from standard dogma and corrected assumptions are added back in. How much of economics dogma is fantasy? Very little of it is not rooted in fantasy.

What is an example of a standard economics fantasy? The biggest one is John Maynard Keynes’s fantasy of a straw man. A straw man is an imaginary non biased government employee charged with implementing a government economic policy. Nature does not provide an entity in the form of a straw man. Even if it is not mentioned in the text of the economic models, the straw man is assumed present. Just mention that one item and it is enough to debunk any stimulus program.

What is an example of an erroneous assumption? In traditional dogma an individual is seen as an autonomous freedom seeking entity who makes independent decisions. The discipline of evolutionary psychology is great source of insight in this area. People are actually not natural freedom seekers. From birth forward, humans use freedom like an asset. Freedom is bargained away for comfort.

Fantasy free economics also honors transactions where money is not exchanged.  Trading freedom for comfort is a transaction where value is exchanged. It is also the first economic decision a person makes. It is also a transaction that is repeated many times over a lifetime.

These are just a few important differences. There are quite a few more.

This is all with respect to aggregate economics. Micro economics is just fine.

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

Fantasy Free Economics recommends the following blogs.

Of Two Minds Liberty Blitzkrieg Mises Institute Straight Line Logic Paul Craig Roberts

 

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Brett Kavanaugh

I encourage you to read the following article. Like all of our institutions the Supreme Court is defined as operating one way but in reality it operates in a different way.   The Supreme Court Appointment

Again, Americans are missing the point. Continue reading

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The Supreme Court Appointment

The United States Supreme Court is a rolling constitutional convention. The make up of the Supreme Court determines what laws and activities are constitutional. What is written in the constitution is not what determines what is constitutional and what is not. The Supreme Court justices make that decision and their reasoning is not necessarily based on the constitution itself. A Supreme Court appointment is a political appointment and the appointee is a politician. Although Supreme Court justices are assumed to be the best legal minds in the country they are not. Supreme Court justices are the best Continue reading

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How Democracy Facilitates Crime

By democracy, I am referring to all forms of government, republics and others which are based on democratic principles. Democracy is a wonderful thing. Like most wonderful things, it does more good than harm but it does bring with it a few negative issues

Democracy makes leadership open to everyone. Criminals can run for office. Un-indicted criminals can run for office without any restrictions at all. From birth forward citizens are inundated with messages that government is benevolent and that truly good people go into public service. Notions like this perhaps make everyday life less stressful but there is no truth to them whatsoever.

The system of dominance and subservience that regulates life on earth is scary and unnerving. It gets replaced with more pleasant interpretations of existence. That doesn’t mean the laws of dominance and subservience have been suspended in favor of something more gentle. It just means the preponderance of humanity is not aware of the danger they are in.

Government is not benevolent at all. Government is a giant organization where people go to get what they want. The process is completely ruthless. Those who get the most out of government are the folks who place the fewest restrictions on themselves as they go about accomplishing their goals. Criminals prey on others but must be careful not to get charged and punished. Criminals who use government as a means of accomplishing goals do not have to worry about getting charged and punished hardly at all. Laws can be passed forcing citizens to buy specific goods and services. If criminals are restricted by a law, they can gain political power and change the law. Laws can be passed for the purpose of redistributing income.

When several hundred years pass with ordinary people remaining unaware as to how government functions, an entire country can become much like an organized crime family in terms of how it operates. Criminals who control government have a huge advantage over criminals who operate only in the private sector. With respect to people who are above a certain high income level, it is rare that their crimes are even noticed much less prosecuted.

Some Americans wring their hands and wonder why life in the country has deteriorated. I just explained why things may not be going that well.

The following is an earlier related article. Crime and Government 

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

Fantasy Free Economics recommends the following blogs.

Of Two Minds Liberty Blitzkrieg Mises Institute Straight Line Logic Paul Craig Roberts

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