Don’t Dismiss This Rally

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This article was posted originally on December 27, 2018. To just read or re-read the original post, skip the italics because that is the update.

When I make forecasts, I win some and lose some. This forecast was not based on supply and demand, technical analysis or fundamental analysis.  Standard dogma does not apply because belligerence rules the day. Dogma is useless in a rigged market. Actually, it is more than useless. Following traditional trading dogma guarantees losses.

We are now in stage 4 of a rigged rally. Just as is discussed below. The deep state is buying outright now. Yes, corporate buybacks constitute, the Deep State buying outright. There is other money being thrown in now on top of buybacks. Is the Deep State insane, you might ask? No, the Deep State has nothing to lose by adding to their holdings. The only other alternative they have is to get destroyed in a bear market. Individual corporations are happy to lend support. Why? Stock buybacks are the fastest way for corporate insiders to make the most money for themselves in the shortest period of time. That is why each of them is doing what is immediately in their best interest. Why would they do it any differently? They are not risking their money. There is absolutely no way the Deep State is going to quit buying stock without being forced to quit. Owning enough in financial assets is a lot like owning all of the railroads are anything else. Whoever owns close everything can determine what is is worth and impose that on everyone else. Once stock ownership has been consolidate in the hands of the elite, values can be pushed to just about any level and they have to do that in order to survive.

The long term consequences of a rigged stock market is the complete destruction of the economy and individual Americans losing everything they own, in the stock market, real estate and normal savings. This will fail in the end.

When will too much damage be done for economic growth occur? That point was reached in 2008. Consequences have been successfully shifted forward.

Have I ever said that I rely on facts when I make a forecast? Decisions are made in the present moment. With one exception, the present moment is devoid of facts. We just don’t know who is doing what at exactly now. We do know people’s incentives and those are facts. So when for purposes of decision making, we assume folks are acting in keeping with the incentives that are in front of them, we are being prudent.

To the elite, the stock market is like a bank. Stock is money to the rich. They convert it into currency to spend it but they don’t have to. They can borrow against it. While stock lacks a few important characteristics of good money it possess others in abundance. Most importantly, it is scarce. The scarcity of stock is being purposefully increased, while for the longest time, the scarcity of our currency has been severely reduced. Isn’t that a cute way to transfer wealth?

It is no accident that the amount of tradeable stock is being severely reduced.  As stock leaves the market, the market gets easier and easier to manipulate higher. With the majority of stock in the control of folks who manipulate, pushing stocks higher and higher becomes easier and easier.  Only about 15% of volume involves stock actually changing hands. The other 85% is skimming money, a lot of which is coordinated with Federal Reserve activity. It doesn’t take a lot of Deep State Money to generate an uptrend.

It looks like the Deep State Syndicate has decided that actually buying at this point will increase the value of their total holdings. Up to this point very little of this kind of money has been used to buy outright to determine the direction of the market. It looks like that has changed.

It is better to risk some money in order to increase the value of all holdings than to let a decline continue and take enormous losses.

The chart at the top is an indicator that measures ETF volume relative to stock volume. When ETF volume rises in the way it has over the past three days, you can count on a heroic effort to get the market moving higher. What this looks like to me is the beginning of a “no matter what it takes” decision to move the market up.

Another indicator I keep for sentiment is the ratio of TZA volume to TNA volume. For those unfamiliar, these are the 3X bear and bull ETFs for small capitalization stocks. This ration has moved drastically in the TNA direction. This has not happened in anything close to this magnitude in the history of these two securities. When it is time for demonstrative action there is boat loads of buying in derivatives at critical points.

I think we can count on an elevated level of affirmative action for the foreseeable future.

Very few Americans actually own stock so it is common to assume no damage is done by an ever rising stock market. I am telling you. It will destroy the country. How? That will have to be a topic for another article.

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

 

 

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Focus On What Is True

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Fantasy free thinking is hard. I won’t kid you. Facing the world as it is and on the world’s terms is no short path to happiness. To know the truth about what is going on in the world requires giving up life’s main coping mechanism. It is written that “The truth shall set you free.” Nothing says that the truth will make you happy.

The present moment has very special characteristics. The most important of those characteristics is that everyone lacks information to use in making decisions. We know what happened yesterday. We have an idea as to what will probably happen tomorrow. We don’t know what is going on right now. The shorter the time period, the less useful information we have.

This is why with the Fantasy Free Economics, I make absolutely sure nothing I write, think, say, forecast or do is in conflict what I know to be true without a doubt.

The first of these truths is that life is governed and regulated by laws of dominance and subservience. Happiness depends on believing otherwise. So, folks come up with alternatives to why things work the way they do. From then on, all who indulge in escape, are handicapped because they are observing through the prism of fantasy. When happiness is the only goal, perhaps fantasy is a good choice. When there are problems in the world that threaten our lives and well being, fantasy free is a superior approach.

There are a number of these truths that put you as close as is possible to being in touch with reality. Here is the next most basic one.

Nature provides only one universal incentive. That is self interest. So, when I see citizens idolizing political candidates and treating them as messiahs, I know they are completely misguided. It is highly comforting to think someone with power and influence is a savior. Since I know ahead of time that nature doesn’t provide an entity which performs that role, I know any candidate is going to be first and foremost self serving.

There are more of these, but by just never losing sight of these two truths, a persons interpretations of what is going on in the world becomes close to flawless.

Always remember. An idiot who is in touch with reality has more utility to the world than than a room full of geniuses who are driven by fantasy.

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

Fantasy Free Economics YouTube Channel

Fantasy Free Economics recommends the following blogs.

Woodpiler Report Of Two Minds Liberty Blitzkrieg Mises Institute Straight Line Logic Paul Craig Roberts

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What Government Is For And The Business Cycle

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Folks, what is government for? You can give it all kinds of lofty definitions, exalt all of the people who work in it. Then you can declare that everyone who works in government has given up self interest and is working tirelessly to make everyone’s lives better.

Those are all highly comforting notions. But, none of it is true. The way government is actually used varies from decade to decade. It is never used the way you think it is even if the way you think it works. Today the rich are using government to insulate themselves from the rigors of free market competition. They do so easily because people do not recognize this as fascism.

I get called out for hating the rich. Does expecting the rich to live under the same economic system as the rest of us constitute hating the rich? You may have noticed that applying any law to people at the top is not particularly easy to do. That is kind of hard to miss unless you are making sure you don’t notice.

The system is going to break down. It is going to break down because the system has been saved so many time. The first economist to entertain the idea of a business cycle was Karl Marx, the father of communism. Karl Marx offered communism as a way to end the business cycle. The only way Marx could tame the business cycle was to do away with capitalism.

The solutions offered by economists, other than myself are not suggesting communism or socialism outright. Instead they they remove the necessary attributes of free markets, like the scarcity of money. Then they pass out subsidies to the affluent. Karl Marx wanted to send the free market system to the execution chamber. American economists, other than myself, only break the knee caps of the free market system. So, Americans would say no thanks to Marxism. But, breaking the knee caps of capitalism and letting it die an agonizing death is something Americans are overwhelmingly embracing.

What cannot be proven with statistics can be proven easily with natural law. Free markets produce optimums. Improvements are desired but they are impossible, no less than it is impossible to have a round square. Free markets generate the best economic outcomes for all income classes, but the free market system is not perfect. It turns out that there are business cycles and sometimes things get bad before they get better. As it is, your country’s economists with me as an exception, believe ending the business cycle is a good idea. Kill the business cycle and you kill the free market system. The efforts to kill the business cycle, without officially having the intention do do so have already brought the economy to the brink of destruction.

So, as it turns out, in order to destroy capitalism, it is not really necessary to have a revolution and overthrow the country. Your country’s economists, with the exception James Quillian of course, are working tirelessly to end the business cycle, which will in the end, end our prosperous way of life.

Kill the business cycle and you kill the free market system.

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Fantasy Free Economics recommends the following blogs.

Woodpiler Report Of Two Minds Liberty Blitzkrieg Mises Institute Straight Line Logic Paul Craig Roberts

 

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The Pope is not a Christian

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One pervasive malady present in daily life is substituting credentials for competence and not understanding the consequences.  Being euphemism free, I observe the pope’s speeches and activities according how he functions.

Pope Francis has either not read the New Testament or he is ignoring it. The pope is not alone. Perhaps one in one thousand rank and file Catholics has read the bible. That is not a bad number. Among Christians, especially those who flaunt their faith, only a tiny fraction are familiar with the scriptures.

Jesus was clearly non attached with respect to the secular world, which includes government and world leaders. Jesus encouraged his disciples to be non attached also. Pope Francis.  It is Pope Francis’s approach that countries should disregard enforcing laws on an as you go basis instead of repealing the laws. Any wall Trump would build would be an effort to enforce a law that is already on the books.  Passing laws and not enforcing them is highly destructive and results a in diminished compliance will laws in general.

Pope Francis is not a Christian but he is a Catholic and head of that church. This is a Catholic issue and if they happy with it being that way, so be it. But, now that Pope Francis is causing problems for the rest of us outside of his church, I feel just fine in reining him in as I would any world leader.

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

Fantasy Free Economics YouTube Channel

Fantasy Free Economics recommends the following blogs.

Woodpiler Report Of Two Minds Liberty Blitzkrieg Mises Institute Straight Line Logic Paul Craig Roberts

 

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The Total Dishonesty Of Macroeconomic Theory

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What is the world’s biggest lie? The world’s biggest lie is that macro economic theories provide even a remote chance of improriving an economy. Despite their popularity and the enormous sums of money their proponents are payed, there is no chance any of these theories will work. They never have and they never will.

That is Today, right before your eyes, I am going to completely debunk the entire discipline of macro economics as it is practiced in the world today. From its beginnings with Keynes general theory all way to the theft by stimulus programs ongoing today, the whole practice is so corrupt, dishonest and destructive all involved belong in handcuffs.

All macro economic theories assume and believe in the imaginary incentive to serve. That incentive is not present in nature but it is assumed into existence.  Macro economic intervention as the discipline calls for is built on logic far more flawed than is that of a chain letter. On paper, a chain letter appears to be a perfect business model. It is low overhead and high projected profits. With a chain letter participants are expected to behave one way but the actually behave another.

Macro economics theories make many erroneous assumptions all of which the theories depend on. There is no way to make pleasant angle food cake when salt is used instead of sugar.  Erroneous assumptions are part of modern macroeconomic theory. Erroneous may not be the best word, because with macroeconomics the actual factors are worse than erroneous. Human behavior is exactly opposite of what it is assumed to be, just like with a chain letter.

I am only going to mention the most destructive and dishonest assumptions that go into macro economic theories.

1.) Total objectivity on the part of those implementing the plan is assumed. This is born of Keynes’s straw man concept. There is no such entity in nature. Totally objective bureaucrats don’t exist. Self interest is the only known universal incentive. What human nature guarantees is a total lack of objectivity.

2.) Government is assumed to be making economic decisions. Governments cannot make economic decisions. Governments only make political decisions.

3.) Government is assumed to be a place where problems are solved and where there are constant ongoing efforts to make life better for everyone. But, in real life government serves as a medium where people go to get what they want. Self interest is assumed to disappear when some one leaves the private sector and moves to the public sector but it doesn’t.

Yes, macro economic theory would have utility to society if human beings were statues and every one of them were completely devoid of self interest and worked tirelessly for the benefit of the country. There are many economic theories which work perfectly on paper. Communism works perfectly but it doesn’t accommodate human nature. Macro economic theories, like communism does not accommodate human nature. What does it mean, if a theory insists that people are going to act one way but in real life they are guaranteed to act another? It means the theory is useless and destructive.

I say useless but that only applies to society as a whole. Politically powerful people make huge profits by persuading government to initiate stimulus programs. Keynes’s work and that of all of the others is used to justify theft by stimulus legislation. The country as a whole winds up having its income constantly routed from the bottom of the food chain where there is little political power to the top where there is political power in abundance.

So, do the nation’s economist really believe in what they are doing? I say they have to say they do in order to get paid. Do not think for a minute that economists who support stimulus plans on behalf of government are honest? What I explained can be understood by someone with a third grade education, and probably most who are completely illiterate. No one with all the PHDs and other credentials in the world can possible rebuke the simple logic I used to expose these flawed theories.

The public will suffer for these things as long as they are willing to believe these things.

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.Youtube Channel

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Fantasy Free Economics recommends the following blogs.

Woodpiler Report Of Two Minds Liberty Blitzkrieg Mises Institute Straight Line Logic Paul Craig Roberts

 

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Dying For HealthCare

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Americans have opted to remove all remaining vestiges of the free market system from their health care system. Do not be too quick to applaud them for that decision. The only health care system in the world that is worse than healthcare provided in classic socialist countries and democratic socialist countries, is the system that has been created here in our non-democratic socialist economy.

Taking an industry out of the free market realm and replacing it with a system of collective non economic decisions changes the incentives of all who are part of the healthcare system. That is because governments are not capable of making economic decisions. A child with a dollar in a candy store makes economic decisions. The child gets as much candy as is possible to buy for a dollar. Only the candy with the highest utility to the child gets purchased. The child cannot buy all he wants. But, out of self interest must economize. That is an economic decision.

Governments don’t make economic decisions. They can’t. Government committees make the worst economic decisions. Who gets what out of government is determined by political power.

When you see a doctor, you will notice a distinct decline in goodwill. That is because goodwill is caused by the free market system. It disappears when it is replaced with something else. I will call it what it is. Non-democratic socialism is fascism. With fascism, who gets what is determined by political power. When two or more people interact in any market, goodwill is an essential ingredient.

In our fascist healthcare system, your doctor does not work for you. Interaction between the insurance company is what determines the doctors income. Your doctor gets paid by getting kick backs from pharmaceutical companies for giving vaccinations and other things. Insurance companies pay doctors to promote their participation in feeding frenzies on government money.

When a change is made from free market to a system of economics by force (fascism), your doctors incentives change. In our fascist system your doctor has an incentive to function as a clerk instead of a doctor. Performing as a clerk pays better than seeing patients. So, doctors engage in more clerk activities and spend less time with patients.

One important aspect of fantasy free economics is that people and institutions are studied   based on how they function, not how they are defined. It doesn’t matter how much education a doctor has or how esteemed the position is,the doctor is a clerk if the doctor functions as a clerk.

Medicine becomes more driven by the needs of the pharmaceutical industry, insurance companies and healthcare professionals. Patients are not really of much importance at all. Importance in a fascist type market is determined by political power. Benefits trickle down from the top. Few benefits make it all way down to the position of patient.

Profits are maximized by homogenizing and standardizing patients and searching for profitable conditions to treat. Patients are treated on a statistical basis. If it doesn’t show up as an out of range statistic on a lab test chances are it will never be noticed.

The death rate in the United States is already rising. It will continue and get much much worse. Many who want to get well and remain well are finding very good cures and remedies by seeking their own information.

While patients are getting very poor results out of their medical doctors orthomolecular medicine is a different story. I recommend that everyone start accumulating information in that area. The work of Andrew Saul PHD  is very impressive. With our healthcare system having morphed into fascist medicine, it is going to get much harder for people and families to find cures for maladies and maintain good health.

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

Fantasy Free Economics YouTube Channel

Fantasy Free Economics recommends the following blogs.

Woodpiler Report Of Two Minds Liberty Blitzkrieg Mises Institute Straight Line Logic Paul Craig Roberts

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What a Bunch Of Clueless Losers

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Search the entire country and try to find a single Trump supporter who is trying to repeal a single law. Find one who is trying to close a single government agency. Find one who is trying to put a stop to the practice of war for profit. You can’t find one, not one in the entire country. The conservative movement in this country has degenerated down to a bunch of insecure ignorant, stupid people searching for messiahs. There are none.

Self government requires citizens to think with the larger part of their brains. It isn’t happening. These are nothing but a bunch of lost animals looking for a bigger more powerful animal to protect them from what the perceived other side will do to them. This is not at all different than a huge herd of sheep seeking the biggest ram to square off against danger while they all run to the center of the herd.

What a bunch of hypocrites. These are the socialists who won’t look at themselves. They get more in government benefits than folks who are on regular welfare. All a person has to do to accomplish that is buy a new home and take advantage the huge discounted mortgage rate government provides them. Such a benefit is made possible by monetary policy which cheats grandmother out of the rightful return on her savings and gives it to Goldman Sachs and the rest of the international banking community.

These are folks who thrive on big government, want fewer benefits for others, and want to personally protect themselves from free market competition. They want free market competition for everyone in the country besides themselves.

Don’t think of Trump supporters as friends of the free market system. They are nothing of the kind. Their interest is in protecting their own government benefits while taking them away from everyone else. The system of socialism they are currently embracing is destroying wealth faster than it can be created. They worry about AOC, Bernie and other classic socialist crowding in on their hoggins. Admitted socialists will get nowhere. Modern socialism, the kind that unapologetically takes from the poor and gives to the rich, is so entrenched, the classic kind will never be seen in a prosperous country.

A Trump supporter is a modern socialist. Make no mistake. Conservatives do conservative things. Trump supporters do not do conservative things. I study what actually happens in real life. Institutions are what they are after they have been transformed by the manifestations of self interest. An institution is what it is and not what it was intended to be.

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

Fantasy Free Economics recommends the following blogs.

Woodpiler Report Of Two Minds Liberty Blitzkrieg Mises Institute Straight Line Logic Paul Craig Roberts

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Victims of Fascism

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There are serious victims of fascism. Why is it they are so hard to find? Actually they are right before everyone’s eyes. The truth is that hardly anyone wants to see them. To see the victims of Fascism requires giving up the fantasy that the United States has a free market economy. In the United States today, economic well being is determined by political power.  All legislation is for profit. All bills passed redistribute wealth and income channeling it from the bottom of the food chain to the top. Those who benefit from the fascist process are not going to describe our system as anything other than the benefits of capitalism? Continue reading

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The Unseen and Unacknowledged Danger

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A number of years back I was watching a documentary about giant lizards on an isolated island. The lizards had never seen a man, an ape or any kind of primate. So, a human could walk right up, stand right by it without the lizard even knowing he was there. In the lizards genetic memory, there was no record of anything like a man. To the lizards, a man was about the same as a rock or a tree branch. Of course, humans are a danger to animals. These lizards skins might make nice looking boots. To the big 10ft long lizards, there was not danger that they could see or notice.

Well, there is a special danger in the world, especially in the United states and the European Union. I know what that danger is. Perhaps you do also. If you are reading this blog, there is a chance you are seeking information and exposing danger on your own. Most people are not. My impression as a fantasy free person is that life in the United States is trained to trust, engage in group decisions and wait for someone with superior knowledge to fix things and protect them. People such as myself who point to problems and and try to warn people are seen as the threat and the genuine issues we expose are viewed as weapons we come up with to make them unhappy.

Many worry themselves sick over the emergence of congress persons who are classic socialists. They are seen as the country’s greatest threat. There are constant rants and raves against them.  Classic socialists have very little political power. The movement will go nowhere. The real danger is to American citizens like the danger the giant lizards did not recognize in the human beings they encountered. The economic system in place now is fascism. Americans worry themselves sick over the remote potential classic socialism will infect our system while they are being eaten alive by the socialist system in operation now. All sorts of folks are calling for the end of capitalism when there is not a single capitalist system operating in the world today?

Economic outcomes in the United States are determined by political power. This is socialism in every respect. Fascism is the economic system in the United States today. Fascism is destroying the United States of America.  That is why the income distribution in the country is so skewed in favor of the upper income crowd. The upper income group has the most political power. With political power government becomes a tool for getting rich and staying rich. Political power is used to protect the rich from the rigors of free market competition. Lack of political power in the middle class and down guarantees all in that group are still bound by free market forces. They have to bargain for a salary. They have to compare prices to find products they can afford. The rich use government to guarantee their well being. The very richest use government to rig markets in their favor and force consumers to by their products. The is fascism. Fascism is a symbiotic partnership between government and the rich and the government.

Fascism is more destructive than classic socialism. It will destroy the economy. It is destroying the economy right now as I am writing this. When fascism destroys it does so suddenly and it is devastating.

So, what can we do to protect ourselves from fascism? Right now we have no defense against it at all because the overall population refuses to acknowledge it. Almost anything will destroy a country if the citizens absolutely refuse to see it and deal with it.

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

Fantasy Free Economics YouTube Channel

Fantasy Free Economics recommends the following blogs.

Woodpiler Report Of Two Minds Liberty Blitzkrieg Mises Institute Straight Line Logic Paul Craig Roberts

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President as CEO of the Nation

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What are the longer term consequences of a president acting as chief executive officer and chairman of the board of the United States of America? What presidents do introduces new roles for government, then normalizes various approaches to governing.

During the 1980s, the Reagan Administration was the first to tamper with the stock market with the creation of the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets. Continue reading

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