Stock Market For 2020

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What is misunderstood about the stock market is an almost universal lack of understanding of what actually causes it to move higher and why there is seldom a correction. Countless highly intelligent analysts, base forecasts on both technical and fundamental analysis.  Hedge funds base their decisions on what has always been useful in prior days. Hedge funds are losing.

The stock market will not go down just because supply is greater than demand. If profit and loss were all that mattered, trading patterns would not look the way they do. The averages gap up almost every day. The opening almost always runs into supply.   Then prices are stabilized until close to the close.  The goal, then becomes, to close the averages higher, regardless of what happens during the body of the trading day.  If that doesn’t work, the secondary goal is to make sure there is no black candle for the day,  If that can’t be done, then make sure it closes up for the day.

From time to time, the market does sell off. In that case the consortium returns the next trading day with more ammunition.  Good news is announced. Shorts are squeezed and here we go again.

The market doesn’t drop because its advance is being orchestrated. The group orchestrating the manipulation, has economic power, wealth  and political power out of proportion to everyone else put together. With every passing day, the supply of stock becomes more and more concentrated into the hands of the most powerful people in the world. What we are seeing is the effort capture and control the world’s factors of production. The stock market is a big part. Wars for profit are of the same nature.

Traders, professional and amateur alike are still blaming the market’s resilience on normal economic influences. These influences are real. They are just outweighed by the forces managing the market and the goal is to gain control of the stock prices permanently.  The public has sunk into a state of accepting super low rates on savings and taking enormous risks in order to get a little higher return.  A fraction of 1% of the population has found a way they believe they can control the value of everything they own and  allow them to dictate not just what other’s investments earn, but what those investments are.

This is not a bubble. Dotcom was a bubble. The public was euphoric. The public, if at all is indirectly invested in the market. Most are not.   Analysts are still treating this as mostly a market but it is rigged to go higher no matter what. The goal is not financial profits in the immediate time frame. The goal is the capture and control of the equity markets worldwide and to continue controlling them far into the future.

The market will eventually go down and a lot but it will be in the face of genuine economic failure. It will happen and the result will be life changing. The economy won’t recover because our free market system has been dismantled and replaced with our unique brand of top down socialism.  It is impossible to say when the break will occur.  Ordinary citizens will be the last to know. There is not one government statistic that is not embellished. The media is owned by the people who manipulate the market. Any truth about the economy will not be reported.

Last year I advised everyone to take the advance that began in December seriously and not treat it as a bear market rally. Whoever took heed of my advice back then is glad they did.

Take This Rally Seriously From  12/27/2018

As it stands now, the manipulators are facing headwinds they are not used to. The new round of Q.E. is not as effective at elevating prices as were the earlier infusions.  Regardless the organized support is ongoing and intensifying.  They will buy outright rather than let the market fall.

An economic recovery which has occurred solely as a result astronomical asset prices will crumble if a bear market ensues.  There is nothing so radical that it won’t be used to support stock prices.  They will buy outright to protect what they already own. As long as volume remains light, they will mostly be successful. Declines don’t begin the way they are assumed to. The very top is likely to be at a point where volume dries up initially. The volume comes in as an initially mild decline accelerates. When that happens, all the ALGOS have to do is buy a few shares to stabilize prices so a sudden break to the downside is never likely.

When the bear market starts is not possible to determine given the enormous demonstrative effort being employed to push it higher.

All we know for sure is that the asset enhancement initiative will destroy the entire economy. It already has done considerable damage. For 2019 all I can say for certain is that the efforts to save the market will be astronomical.  The world’s power structure can’t survive a bear market and they know it

.The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

Fantasy Free Economics YouTube Channel

Fantasy Free Economics recommends the following blogs.

Woodpiler Report Of Two Minds Liberty Blitzkrieg Mises Institute Straight Line Logic Paul Craig Roberts Straight Line Logic

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A Nation Of Fools

PDF Version                                                                         December 18 2019

What we have in the United Sates is a multitude of fools. What is a fool other than one who bases his life on things that are not  true because the truth is too daunting? What is meaningful to a fool? Why that would be entertainment and engaging in mindless fantasy. Politics comes down to seeking political messiahs and virtue signaling. The role of citizen in a democracy, is to take authority over government and leaders. American citizens do just the opposite.

As unpleasant as they are, here are the facts.

While republicans identify themselves as conservatives, they embrace political initiatives which are even more socialist than those suggested by the unapologetic classic socialists in the Democratic party.

What is socialism other than the replacement of price with political power for the purpose of allocating resources in an economy? In other words, who gets what in a socialist economy is determined by who does or does not have political power. Benefits all go to the top regardless of stated intentions. This is true of classic socialism. This is true of the fascist style socialism Americans are now embracing while calling it capitalism.

All the president has to do is say, “Make America Great Again” and supporters rally around the man and think of themselves as good patriotic Americans. So which period in history would we be better off returning to. Is it the 1940s and WWII? To do that we would have to have a third world war. Should we return to the 60s and be hippies again? How about the Civil War? When was this great period in history that we are going to return to? The president identifies scapegoats like immigrants and the Chinese. The scapegoats become the issue.

What about the trade war? So far, in all of history, there has never been a positive outcome for any country involved in a trade war. Does anyone want to place a bet that ordinary citizens will come out ahead with this one?

So, we have a trade war which will bolster the profits of American corporations. American corporations are in fact headquartered in the United States. The corporations are owned by stockholders who are scattered all over the globe. Foreign central banks own significant amounts of stock in these “American Corporations.”  So, Americans believe it is a good idea to put themselves in a financial hardship so that our corporations can win one for the team? Americans are trained from birth to do just that. That is not a way in which an economy works wells. It only works that way if the population is trained to promote its own poverty.  The greatest accomplishment of public education is to teach children to establish arbitrary loyalties and promote their own poverty by embracing the collective agendas of others and coming together for causes deemed in the public interest.

What about the stock market? Employment numbers look good but are they really? Even if the numbers are not tampered with and embellished has anyone taken a close look? We now have lower wages as a new normal for workers. Perhaps we do have more people working these days. Assuming we do, most of the new hires are working for less real income than when job numbers were a lot less than stellar.

What about the stock market? Starting in spring of 2003, an asset value enhancement initiative was initiated.  With every day that has passed since then, the stock market has become more and more managed. There is no official policy stating as much, so you might wonder how that could be. Do you seriously think there is absolutely nothing in Washington that is done outside of a formal congressional setting? A better question, is. Are there any significant issues entertained in a formal congressional setting? I don’t know of any. Do you know any?

Here is why the stock market is overpriced and doesn’t fall. There is an astronomical level of organized support keeping it moving in the right direction. Imagine vendors  selling apples on a sidewalk. All but one has just a bucket of apples while while one large vendor has a huge cart of apples with far more fruit than all of the others put together. Who is going to decide what apples sell for on that street?

The goal of the asset value initiative is to is to concentrate stock ownership in the hands of a few who then decide what everyone else pays for shares of stock. Is there a theory behind this process? Of course there is. The theory is that high stock prices become a new normal. Keep security prices rising and the economy will follow and so on. Has GDP responded well? GDP is officially very good but how good is it in reality? It is hard to find growing prosperity within the masses who work very hard and come home tired everyday. We do have more working and making less per hour. Government spending is counted. When GDP needs to look good, government spending can be increased in whatever amount is needed for the purpose of publishing good looking numbers.

What we have with respect to the stock market is the capture, consolidation and control of a huge portion of one of the factors of production. The Federal Reserve is managed with political power and all of government is used as a tool for personal enrichment. Stock buybacks are coordinated with Federal Reserve Policy. The public has its money parked in IRAs and puts little stock on the market as supply. Non-IRA money is concentrated in ETFs so hardly a soul is concerned with the value of one particular stock price. Where is supply going to come from?

For right now, there isn’t any to speak of but supply will emerge, although not in a way most expect. For now, any reasonable stock selloff can be offset by the elite buying outright. Foreign central banks already own a lot of American shares. They will buy more  if prices start falling, if for no better reason than to protect the value of what they already. The elite in general will do the same thing. When if ever or at all will stock prices normalize?

The bottom will fall out when the economy collapses and the damage cannot be explained away. The elite will panic in the same way everyone else normally does when their fantasy based paradigms fall apart. The elite do plan on being bailed out. Be prepare because they just might be. How? We don’t know yet. We do know that they are a lot smarter than the rest of us.

Both the economy and the stock market will collapse but the economy will be the first to fail. The economy is rotting from the bottom up and the rot is moving higher up the income ladder every day. The stellar numbers we are seeing are good for show. When the bottom of the economy falls out, the top will collapse on top of all others.

Do not expect an economic recovery. Only free market forces can fuel a recovery. Our free market system has been replaced with at least two styles of socialism.

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

Fantasy Free Economics YouTube Channel

Fantasy Free Economics recommends the following blogs.

Woodpiler Report Of Two Minds Liberty Blitzkrieg Mises Institute Straight Line Logic Paul Craig Roberts Straight Line Logic

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The Affordable Care Act as a Cause of Death

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The Affordable Care was passed in 2010. It took the law a few years to become fully implemented. Lifespans of Americans began declining in 2014 and continue declining today. Count on this trend to continue into the future.

Declining lifespans are explained away as being due to things like suicides and drug overdoses. Continue reading

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Understanding The Impeachment Effort

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The reason for the impeachment effort is to protect the cash cows all in power have acquired over the years through the use of government and politics. Self interest is conveniently deemed not present in the public sector. Self interest manifests in the public sector faster and more efficiently in the public sector. In a free market system, self interest is balanced. There are buyers and sellers and they trade when their self interest’s are balanced. So, there goes the stress. Free people agree. Goodwill is a huge bi-product. There is a sense of peace.

Self interests works a little differently in government. There are no customers. So, there is no way self interest can be balanced. There is voting but public opinion is easily managed and homogenized.  With government, self interest expands without bounds. It mutates and continues to expand. Symbiotic self interests develop and there are multi partner self interest effort partnerships. That all of these self interest situations might be displaced is the issue. There is nothing about impeaching the president that will do any good at all for the overall country. There is not much good going to come from refraining to impeach the president either. The public will gain nothing either way.

Donald Trump is not a free market guy. He is a fascist style socialist just as are his opponents. He will replace the enriched opportunists with opportunists of his own choosing. The public will continue to be exploited just as they are being exploited presently and always have been.  As long as voters view their leaders as messiahs instead of seeing them for what they are, they will all be donors to the upper class which controls government. Fascist style socialism is largely deemed the same as free market but it is not..

Some anticipate that the public will snap to reality as soon as a crisis hits. Don’t count on it. Fantasy is powerful. People will die before giving up fantasy. Fantasy completely eclipses reality.

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

Fantasy Free Economics YouTube Channel

Fantasy Free Economics recommends the following blogs.

Woodpiler Report Of Two Minds Liberty Blitzkrieg Mises Institute Straight Line Logic Paul Craig Roberts Straight Line Logic

 

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What Does The President Have To Do With The State Of The Economy?

Presidents can and do have a huge effect on the state of the economy. However, the effect is nothing like it is deemed to be. A complete free market system provides an optimum level of wellbeing for all who live within an economy. Political power is not used to determine who gets what in a free market economy.

Presidents can and do change this situation. The Full Employment Act of 1978 requires the executive branch to engage in central economic planning. Thus, a president is now required by law to change the structure and nature of the U.S. economy.

Prior to the passage of the Full Employment Act of 1978, presidents had a lot less influence over the economy. Even, prior to that, presidents have used their positions as a means of a means of accomplishing various political initiatives.

A good example of this, is when Richard Nixon found a way to take the United States completely off of the gold standard. Exiting the gold standard made it possible to flood the economy with unearned money. What is unearned money good for?  The primary use of unearned money is to transfer wealth and income from those who have little or no political power into the coffers of those who have massive political power. While the ramifications of leaving the gold standard  were not that noticeable during the Nixon Administration, over time that decision has had enormous ramifications and has created many problems.

During the 80s, Ronald Reagan completely embraced the Full Employment Act of 1978. He initiated Keynesian supply side economic programs with a vengeance. Reagan’s supply side economic policies have been copied and imitated by every president since.  Ronald Reagan was also the first president to tamper with the financial markets. Today, we have central planning for the financial markets and a huge asset bubble. A strong stock market is now a complete necessity for any president who wants to be re-elected. Masses of unearned money are now Routinely funneled into the stock market. We now have a stock market that rises completely independently of economic considerations. Enhancing asset prices by government policy is now deemed as a way to stimulate economic growth. Any positives for the economy at large are temporary and fleeting. Wealth and income transfers are more permanent.

Once a president establishes a precedent and that has been a success politically undertaking, presidents who follow normalize the practice.

All presidents get credited with making the economy what it is during their tenures in office. There is not much logic in that notion. However the long term ramifications of a president’s economic programs have a huge impact as time passes.

Any government intervention in the economy constitutes central economic planning. What does central economic planning accomplish? It creates feeding frenzies on unearned money.

Today we have 1000+ page bills passing congress. What do long wordy laws all have in common. All consists of  layers of skimming operations. Each establishes a feeding frenzy on newly available federal money. Wealth and income are transferred away from ordinary people and into the large hands of parties with enough political power to lobby to have the laws passed.

What has been the outcome of presidential central economic planning? Income in the country has become concentrated among the upper 1% who have enough political power to enrich themselves through the use of government.

The bottom of the income ladder is starved as their earnings and wealth have declined or remained unchanged. The chart below illustrates how the earning an wealth gap has widened since the passage of the Full Employment Act of 1978. See the green line.

So, a president is credited with what good or bad has happened in an economy during his administration and that is largely a just a convenient way of explaining things.  By setting precedents as to what works  well  politically, presidents completely change an economic system. Politics always focuses on the present and pays no mind to long term ramifications. It is long term ramifications that matter.

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

Fantasy Free Economics YouTube Channel

Fantasy Free Economics recommends the following blogs.

Woodpiler Report Of Two Minds Liberty Blitzkrieg Mises Institute Straight Line Logic Paul Craig Roberts Straight Line Logic

 

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Why Is Our Health Care System So Bad?

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That is very simple to answer. Any healthcare law that is based on a 1000+ page bill is filled with elaborate skimming operation placed there by the parties who lobby to get the bill passed. The Affordable Care Act is a huge collection of skimming operations that do nothing but impoverish American citizens.

When a bill like this hits congress, it is important to understand why the bill is there and who lobbied to get it passed. It wasn’t ordinary citizens. Finding out who actually wrote the bill is almost impossible. What it is is a feeding frenzy on federal money and all the benefits go to the top. Lifespans of Americans started declining as soon as the law was fully in effect. That is no surprise.

Where did Americans get the idea that owning health insurance constitutes having healthcare? Is it reasonable that government provide health care? It is reasonable if the majority of citizens deem it to be a good thing. It is a good thing to have a safety net for sure. Doing that does not mean the end of the free market system any more than having a fire department does.

Who complains about ever rising costs of fire departments? Surely someone does, but I haven’t found one. The difference is that government just pays for a fire department without requiring everyone to buy fire prevention insurance.

Government can pay for healthcare the same way. But, who is interested in that? Opinion is that we must allow the insurance industry and everyone else with massive political power to participate in the enormous economic feeding frenzy that ensues.

Our healthcare system is bad because citizens are willing to have it the way it is. I have personally cited an unbelievably efficient system that eliminates that eliminates the mush and corporate feeding frenzy. However, it is not lobbyist friendly. There is no such thing as free healthcare. There are good ways to provide healthcare on a collective basis. None of those are even up for consideration. Nothing will get better as long as lobbyists write bills. Your representatives can actually write bills. They just don’t. Citizens can also write bills and have there representatives take them to the floor. The fact is that, they don’t and do not seem interested.

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

Fantasy Free Economics YouTube Channel

Fantasy Free Economics recommends the following blogs.

Woodpiler Report Of Two Minds Liberty Blitzkrieg Mises Institute Straight Line Logic Paul Craig Roberts Straight Line Logic

 

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The Economy And Stock Market What To Expect

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You will hear news about the trade war as well as new and improved ways  prevent  the economy from going into a depression. There will be news reports connecting an economic downturn to something that is happening the very day economic troubles become acknowledged. It will be blamed on some development in the trade war or some change in a Federal Reserve policy. It will be blamed on something the president said or did on a given day. It may even be blamed on immigration policy.  It will be blamed on something in the news for sure. Pay these things no mind.

Central economic planning is the cause of economic headwinds. Efforts to eliminate the business cycle may have been successful according to raw government statistics. Eliminating the business cycle and doing away with small recessions guarantees an eventual life changing depression. Why? Recessions are signals to producers that they have produced too much of  one thing and need to re-figure out what consumers are likely to to be more interested in buying.

This is never mentioned but at the bottom of the depression in the 1930s, prosperity in the United States was higher than any level of prosperity ever achieved in a command economy. For example, the old Soviet Union was completely successful in eliminating its business cycle. In being successful in doing that prosperity of any kind disappeared. Central economic planning in the United States will destroy life in the United States just as it did in the old Soviet Union. Ronald Reagan did not destroy the old Soviet Union. The old Soviet Union destroyed itself.

Central economic planning has always handicapped the U. S. economy. After passage of the Full Employment Act of 1978 Central Economic Planning was mandated and is now the law of the land.  Who gets what in the economy is now determined by who has political power and not by who has money to spend. With the acceleration of central economic planning, lobbying efforts have increased manifold. With central economic planning as the law of the land, government is now the go to place for strong financial interests to take advantage of the rest of societies members who have little political power.

The coming depression is a given. Count on it. It is going to happen. The economy is already rotting from the bottom up. The growing number of homeless is a clear sign.  Those with the least political power are the first to suffer. Whatever your level of prosperity, the misery is chasing you up the food chain ladder and you won’t be able to escape. When the economic rot at the bottom is pervasive enough, the top of the economy will collapse and there will me misery abound. The possible outcomes of chaos are not predictable. When the calamity hits, the public is highly likely to opt for more central planning. Intellectuals will seize the opportunity to profit from the pretense of knowledge and accommodate all who still have confidence in government economic solutions. Basically more of what has caused the difficulties will likely be used to try and remedy the problems. Just be ready because things are going to get very very bad.

The stock market is no longer a leading indicator. Stock prices are managed with organized support. The stock market now serves more like a judas goat.   Specially trained goats have been used as a means of gently enticing sheep to peacefully follow such goats to be slaughtered.  That is the function of the stock market today. 

Right now the U.S. stock market market is at a critical juncture as are foreign stock Markets. All major indexes around the world are in in long term consolidation patterns. Any stock market that looks like it will break down below its consolidation pattern is going to get as much organized support as can be mustered up. The question we all must ask is, what are the limits of resources that can be used to elevate the stock market? That is why I am in cash as an alternative to shorting the market.

U.S 

Germany


China

 

 

 

 

 

Some may remember my forecast from December of 2018.  Don’t Dismiss This Rally This was at a time when most others were convinced that a bear market had started and it had a long way to go. I knew right away that organized support had come in and would push the market higher than anyone was expecting. I am honestly not that good of a stock market analyst. I may be above average but I am not psychic for sure. What I am good at is discovering that non organic forces are distorting a market. That doesn’t happen that often but it is happening and has been the driving force behind high stock prices. My work is based on natural law and natural law never fails, at least it hasn’t failed yet.

For more insight as to how the stock market is being used, this is an earlier article clarifying that. The Horse The Economy Rides, The Stock Market

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

 

 

Fantasy Free Economics YouTube Channel

Fantasy Free Economics Recommends the following blogs.
Woodpiler Report Of Two Minds Liberty Blitzkrieg Mises Institute Straight Line Logic Paul Craig Roberts

Dont Dismiss This Rally

 

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The Horse The Economy Rides, The Stock Market

The Horse The Economy Rides PDF Version

The theory is that a controlled perpetual uptrend in stocks that is unshakable  will carry the economy with it. And, it has as long as folks are happy the upper one percent grows in prosperity while the rest of the country suffers  from shrinking real incomes. Yes, GDP which is quite malleable because there are so many wild cards used in its method of calculation, can be anything it needs to be in a given quarter. Continue reading

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Applying Natural Law To Economics

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The discipline of economics in the aggregate is fatally flawed because of a complete ignorance natural law. As intricate as economic theory is, it never has a chance of working as intended because it is flawed from the beginning. The most elaborate theories can be debunked in  a sentence or two by pointing out that influences at the most basic level are not even known about much less considered. Continue reading

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Advice for LGBT Efforts

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This is not criticism of the goals of people in the LGBT movement. It really is advice and nothing more. It is human nature for all of us to try and elevate the perception others have of us. I have no way of knowing how and why certain people have different attributes. I am not foolish enough to proclaim that I know anything at all as to why one person turns out one way and someone else turns out another. Continue reading

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