The Trump Putin Summit

Trump is like a singer who knows ahead of time, when he walks on stage  he is going to have to dodge rotten eggs and spoiled fruit before he even starts his song. Before Trump acts he already knows ahead of time he is going to be called a racist, called out for treason, and any other name his detractors can think of.

Today Trump is being accused of treason. If he was going to give a speech somewhere and I got a hold of the transcript, I could tell you what names he was going to be called ahead of time. Anyone who reads this blog knows I am not a fan of Donald Trump. But, we are not politicians. We can be honest.

The intelligence agencies Trump is being criticized for disrespecting are far more dangerous to American citizens than Russia is. Any foreign country is a potential danger but our intelligence agencies have gotten the United States into virtually every war we have ever fought with deceptive information. From the Battle Ship Maine to the weapons of mas destruction our intelligence agencies have acted politically. Rather than protect Americans they serve politicians by congering up fraudulent information a president needs to engage in wars. Some would argue that these agencies are not actually out to get Trump. What is clear certainly is that they don’t love him.

With new emerging information that the CIA was behind the Kennedy assassination, it is probably smart for trump to view them with suspicion. If we made two columns of Americans killed because of dishonest intelligence and a column of Americans killed by Russia, Which would be the longest column? You decide.

I know for a fact the Department of Homeland Security is monitoring this blog. I am an old man living a modest life style. The only time in my life I was convicted of a crime, other than for a traffic violation, was in the 80s was when my dog got out of the fence and got picked up by animal control. That really was a crime. I had to pay a fine. I am sure it is on my record. That is it folks but I am viewed as a potential threat to the country.

<em>Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness. The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

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Cabbage Head Theory Disproved

What is the cabbage head theory? Several decades back a researcher put a sensor on one head of cabbage in a garden. Then he whacked the cabbage head next to it with a machete. To the researchers amazement, the cabbage head next to the one that was hacked, emitted an electrical signal  just as the one head of cabbaged was cut wide open.

The cabbage head theory states that since human beings are smarter and more sensitive than cabbage heads, human being should naturally be sensitive to harm and suffering that is being inflicted on others. Human beings really do have trouble automatically grasping that what is happening to others may very well happen to them when circumstances change just a little. We have this practice of civil forfeiture where all a person owns can be taken from him without a trial, just because it appears he is committing a crime. Human beings actually have trouble entertaining the idea that practices like civil asset forfeiture will expand and that they will eventually be harmed themselves. The United States is dropping bombs all over the globe, killing innocent people so that our energy industries can prosper even more than they are now. Americans can’t fathom that a government which can kill innocent people for the profit of an industry might turn on them under new emerging circumstances.

It is fashionable today to equate pro business and free market as being the same. They are not. Free market means the government acts as a referee in the economy and no sector is favored. Pro business is the approach that justifies committing crimes for the “greater good.” Pro business turns out to be top down socialism which is actually more destructive than the type of socialism that is understood by everyone. Why is it more destructive? When pro business is introduced into a largely free market economy, there is much more good to destroy than when ordinary socialism is introduced into a country like Venezuela. The truth is a hard sell.

Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

Fantasy Free Economics recommends the following blogs.

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In the Eyes of Your Betters

Michael-Bloomberg-wikipedia-665x385Observe the world without the handicap of looking through the prism of fantasy and euphemisms and genuine insight becomes commonplace. Who are your betters and why are they called betters? Your betters are the sociopaths who make decisions for you. Why are they better? They are your betters because you worship them. Rid your mind of fantasy and euphemisms and you see them not as they are defined but as they function.
But all people are the same you declare? With a casual glance it would appear that way but an in depth look produces a clearer picture.

A small percentage of the population is born with an elevated ability to herd their peers. You can spot them in kindergarten. They are the ones all of the other children follow around. They tell others what to do and they do it. To the teachers, they are cute as a button. These little children maintain these behaviors for the rest of their lives. They grow up to be presidents, mayors, senators, congressmen and billionaires. They are sociopaths. But the people you mention have consciences you say. They actually have something else that is hard to distinguish from a conscience. They have an accelerated need to keep their self esteem elevated. They do not like to be in a position where others might think less of them.

These are your betters. It is part of nature. In their minds, they are automatically entitled to part of what you have. For them, controlling others is not a choice. They are hard wired to herd and control. If one of your betters is not controlling the lives of others, his own life seems incomplete.

Who are you in the eyes of your betters? You are a human being and you are always a resource to start. As your betters gain more and more power, to them you become more and more like a statue or a chess piece. As power becomes more and more centralized, leaders come to see your behavior and incentives as entirely manageable and predictable. At some point, their expectations of others become unrealistic. What they feel they are entitled to starts going way past society’s boundaries.

As docile as people are in front of their betters, if treated too badly, they will turn on those they have previously worshiped. In the United States today, this is what the situation is. It is the same in Europe and Asia.

Again, why are these people your betters? They are betters with respect to you because you treat them as they if they are.

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

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Can the United States Survive a Bear Market?

If the stock market falls, it will take the rest of the economy with it.

Without rising asset prices, there would be no economic recovery. The model used for causing economic activity is the “If we build it they will come.” model. The idea is that if the wealthiest of the world’s citizen are enriched when the value of all they own rises independently of earnings and everything else, the recovery will extend all the way to the bottom of the food chain. Does the logic of this sound solid? If it does, I will remind you that the logic behind a chain letter sounds appealing. If you only give the idea a superficial look a chain letter sounds great.  Lets not be too hard on chain letters. Profits have been made, by those who initiate chain letters. Profits are being made by the originators of the “build it and they will come,” economic model.

Economic models are interesting animals. An economist can develop one based on any kind of logic. The model is never tested empirically. The whole population jumps on it as if it was manna sent from heaven. If engineers build a plane that has never been on a test flight, would the airlines buy it and put passengers on it? Probably they would pass on the opportunity. The pretense of knowledge pays more than does actual knowledge.

Where does government economic policy come from? It is mandated in the Full Employment Act of 1878. O.K., but how is the plan of intervention decided upon? Any economic intervention is going to be based on the needs of the world’s most politically powerful citizens. Who might that be in todays world? Those are the folks who already have most of the worlds wealth and resources. Does it not make sense, that our plan for economic prosperity would be the one which would enrich them the most?

Build it and they will come? Did they come? No they have not. So, all of the worlds resources are now focused on preventing any type of bear market in stocks. A bear market will take the economy with it because their is no genuine economic growth caused by anything other than high asset prices.

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

 

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Trading the Political Agenda

Rising stock prices at this point in history are a political agenda. It is as simple as that. There will be no time where supply of stock hitting the market is greater than the demand for stocks and a bear market ensues as a result. The market will continue to be supported no matter what. From the political agenda the manipulation trinity of central banks, corporate buybacks and the planned short squeeze have evolved. It is coordinated. Even though my line of reasoning on this is not unique, there are no accomplished annalists who are operating on that basis. The time will come when much damage to the economy has occurred. It will be commonplace to say, “yes that is the way it was but no one had any way of knowing.”  So, when you read or hear that, if I am still alive, I will tell you I told you so. When bad things happen in or because of government, it normally takes over forty years to come out.

I can’t count the number of articles and research reports I read where analysts are putting out sell signals and talking dooms day talk. They are all right except that it is public money keeping the stock market up and not the enthusiasm of investors. Rather than say they are all wrong I will say they are in the wrong joke. Although some of the reports are written specifically to draw in shorts to be squeezed.

The bull market will end when and if the consortium driving it up falls apart or some coercive action is taken to end the manipulation. That could happen tomorrow or it could take a number of years. The point is that the market won’t drop because ordinary people stop investing. There is also the possibility that the economy sustains so much damage that we end up with a situation like we had in 2008.  In that case the population at large will be expected to absorb the losses.

I will also say again to watch for the tariffs to be taken off the table around the first week of September. Chances are that traders will be all beared up and in short positions waiting for weakness going into the fall. Shorts are always encouraged and they can count on getting squeezed. For those who may not know, early fall is seasonally the weakest time of the year and also the time of year when crashes are most likely to occur.

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

 

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Pig Races, Hog Calling Contests, Politics

bbA political event like a presidential or congressional campaign can be easily explained with some analogies.

Pigs don’t leave the trough as long as the farmer keeps throwing in slop. Corporations and the politically powerful do not leave the trough in Washington as long as they are allowed to lobby, pass pills and force citizens buy their products and services.

A world champion hog caller and winner of countless hog calling contests  explains why she always wins. “You have to have appeal in your voice as well as power. You have to convince the pigs you have got something for them”best

The politicians in the race need to have appeal as well as power in their voices when they talk to voters. They have to convince the voters they have something for them.

When pigs run in races, the reward that is offered is one Oreo cookie placed in a trough at the end of the track. Only one pig gets the cookie but all the pigs compete as if each one had a realistic chance to eat the cookie.ballot_box_3192711b

Voters are like the pigs in a pig race. They vote for candidates thinking there will be some personal benefit for each of them.  Benefits are like the one cookie that goes to the pig that wins the race. Voters all think they have a chance of getting benefits from one of the candidates. For most, no benefits are forthcoming.

In the end the pigs get used for purposes that suit the farmer. Citizens end up getting used by the politicians who get their votes.

In an election incentives parallel the incentives pigs have in going to the trough, getting called by a farmer, serving the farmer’s interests in the end and getting nothing for their time. Most eventually get butchered.b

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

 

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Promoting Your Own Poverty

All through school children are taught that government is benevolent. Patriotism is treated as always good. Men and women in uniform are seen as always fighting for freedom. In schools group effort is the ideal and individual effort is seldom recognized.

What would the United States be like, if learning focused on the truth rather than presenting notions we would like to be true as the truth? Government is and never has been anything other than the go to place for politically powerful people to get what they want at the expense of society at large.

So, when a young person enters adulthood and the world of politics it is with a highly perverted idea of how the system works in the real world. There is not much chance of self government working well with a constant supply of citizens leaving school believing wrong ideas about the way collective activity actually works.

What we end up with is multitudes of people willing to be exploited. Because patriotism is deemed good no matter what and military adventures are always deemed as fighting for freedom, wars for profit get no resistance.  The truth is never all that bad but it takes some getting used to.
The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

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The Gift of Inflation

A president finds ways to get along. How does Donald Trump please the Deep State? For the longest time, your Federal Reserve has been trying unsuccessfully to create price inflation. Rising stock prices is a much easier task. The market manipulation trinity, buybacks, the short squeeze and buying outright, is in place. Central banks have successfully decoupled stock prices from earnings. Creating inflation has been a tough order. Creating inflation is difficult for everyone except Donald Trump.

For Donald Trump, the trade war is the ticket. Trump’s supporters love the trade war. Most of them have no idea what a recking ball a trade war is. It all sounds good. What else matters? A chain letter sounds good. A trade war will cause inflation. That is only one of the harmful outcomes of a trade war. So, with Trump, the Deep State gets continuing asset enhancement with the Federal Reserve plus now price inflation with tariffs.

I am going to access the damage even before it occurs. The poor and middle class will be hurt considerably. Corporate profits will benefit from higher margins. Borrower, especially the U.S. government will get massive relief. The eventual reckoning will be worse than if it had occurred before inflation was introduced.

Federal Reserve members are paid for the pretense of knowledge. They neither have the knowledge or the insight to improve the economy. Any honest economist will tell you, there is no way inflation, a little or a lot is good for an economy. Any truck driver will say the same. There is only one trade policy capable of benefiting the country as a whole. That is to unilaterally remove all tariffs and restrictions on legal goods and services entering and leaving the United States. That would not be a trade war. It would just be the best economic policy.

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

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Trouble Shooting Democracy The Fix

Wherever you live, surely you have noticed that citizens are concerned that democracy based governments around the world are not functioning properly. There is a solution. Since I am in the United States, what I am going to suggest here is based on observations of our system. In the United States there are two possible solutions. One is to change the method of choosing members of the House of Representatives to a jury system. If you think issues of passing laws are so complex that ordinary citizens would not be able to handle the job, you are wrong. I am not talking about a jury of 12 citizens. I am talking about a jury the size of the the membership of the House of Representatives. They would not have to be underpaid like jurors in court trials are paid.

The second method is slightly different and would entail the equivalent of a fourth branch of government. It would still be based on picking a jury. The role of the public jury would be to rule on the constitutionality of any law passed by the House and Senate and whether or not the law would be good for the citizens of the country. The decision would be made just like decisions are made in a jury trial. Notice that of our institutions, the jury system works very well, not perfect but very well. Our system of government, the way it is now is failing. The second system suggested is the better of the two.

When our leaders formed the country they anticipated issues with democracy. That is why the United States is organized as a Republic. The fear was that the masses would vote everyone else’s money into their pockets. That was a reasonable fear to have but they did not anticipate other ways the system could be corrupted. As it has turned out, in a democratic system, it takes a very unlikely set of personality characteristics to get elected to a high office. Only folks with a political personality have the manipulative skills necessary to get elected to a high office. Political personality is like a euphemism for sociopath. The races are so competitive that the truth gets pushed out of the political dialog. The founding fathers also expected that ordinary citizens would be more independent minded than it turns out they are. Today the United States government is used as a marketing tool for rigging markets and forcing citizens to buy goods and services they wouldn’t otherwise.  For sure, self government won’t survive if folks are not willing to make necessary changes required to make it work properly.

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

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Stock Market Forecast From 6-25-18 Through October

The cash cow is the stock market manipulation trinity. These are central banks, corporate buybacks and the short squeeze as carried out by friends of the Fed. This is history’s greatest cash cow. It won’t be given up without a fight. It is much easier to figure out what the plan is than how successful the plan will be. The deep state owns the media but the media is losing influence. Distrust of the media will grow for a very logical reason. The public is discovering there is no reason to trust the media. The media may not be of much help but it will still be used as best as is possible.

Here is how it will play out. The deep state operators are much more intelligent than the rest of us. If they weren’t they would not be so wealthy and effective at what they do. However, just by knowing their incentives and past behaviors it is easy enough to figure out what they are doing.  They know early fall is the weakest seasonally for the stock market. Throughout history all market crashes have occurred moving into and through October. So, the Deep Staters will reason that any weakness needs to occur before September. So from now through August, look for more weakness. Earnings will be embellished as usual during the upcoming earnings season. During earnings season, there will probably be a big sell off in the techs. Because Dow type stocks are being beaten down, they will be available to squeeze as the techs are falling off. The market will be down but all hope will not be lost.

You will notice that major corporations like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America are putting out dreadfully bearish research reports. This is expressly for the purpose of drawing in shorts to squeeze. These kinds don’t have a history of sharing wisdom with folks on the wrong end of the food chain. There is no reason think that is their purpose now.

Most importantly, close to a week before September, it will be announced that the trade war is off. That is the most likely game changing announcement although it may be something different. It may be more than one thing. The president will have gotten everything he wanted from the Chinese and all others. All problems will be deemed solved and there will be green lights everywhere saying the water is fine. The party is on again. Dive in.  Will this work? My guess is not as well as it has worked in the past. But, the deep state knows the danger is in the fall and they will have a plan for dealing with it.

I really cannot be of much help with forecasting market levels. In a rigged market, technical analysis is useless. The Deep State is still in control but is losing grip with every passing moment. I still have only a few bearish ETFs and a pile of cash waiting to be invested at much lower prices.

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do n

The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.The truth is a hard sell. Fantasy Free Economics gains readers one at a time. Major search engines simply do not list blogs which disagree with their political agenda. As long as folks share the link to this blog and others speaking out against the grain, the truth will at least trickle into the public consciousness.

Fantasy Free Economics recommends the following blogs.

Of Two Minds Liberty Blitzkrieg Mises Institute

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